Russia-Georgia Conflict

[Yvl]

That's just... what the fuck?! That would cause a world war - the world vs Russia. They can't be serious.

I forsee sanctions. Everybody loves sanctions.
_________________

[Tullaryx]

I don't see any sort of world war because of the recent events and actions by Russia. What I do see is a change in how the West and the former Soviet Republics deal with the Putin-Medvedev government. While Russia had an easy time against Georgia it's a different matter trying to bully the bigger Eastern Bloc nations like Poland and Ukraine.

The Ukraine has made it clear that the Russian's Black Sea Fleet actions in sinking and blockading the Georgian Black Sea port at Poti wasn't appreciated since Russia did it through Ukrainian territory. Without the use of the Sebastopol Naval Base to return to the Russian military loses its biggest and only port in the Black Sea. Poland's decision to agree in basing missile interceptors on its soil includes agreements which the US never even offered. One of which is that American military personnel be stationed on Polish territory to help operate the missile systems for an undeterminate number of years. Poland also requested that the missile systems used be of the more advanced bloc of Patriot interceptors. The final requests which the Polish government made in order to agree to the basing was for the US to help upgrade the Polish military in terms of training and material.

I can sympathize somewhat in what the Russians may be feeling since the end of the Cold War and the breaking of the Warsaw Pact alliance. For all intents and purposes the Russians are surrounded by nations which do not see them in a friendly light. These are nations who suffered through most of the 20th century under Soviet leadership. Its why nations like the Ukraine, Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania were quick to back Georgia with Poland and Hungary (already part of NATO) rushing to agree to help the US in its plans to base missile systems on their soil. Russia is feeling boxed in and reacting in whats worked for them in the past and thats using their military to scare those they think can be a threat to them.

But unlike the Cold War, the Russians may also be moving down a path which may overstretch them and overestimate their strenght and importance in the region. Their main strenght now has less to do with their military (at least their conventional arms) and more to do with them being the major distributor of natural gas to Western Europe. They've already used their control of natural gas pipelines to threaten Ukraine in the past couple years. But in terms of actually invading or attacking nations like Poland and the Ukraine the Russians are overestimating their abilities. It's one thing to invade a nation like Georgia with a small military. It's another to invade Poland and the Ukraine whose military are quite large and who have the capacity to produce material (both Poland and the Ukraine kept the huge tank production facilities used during the Cold War to manufacture advance Soviet tank designs).

So, while the Russians have proved that they can still bite back if pushed it may have caused the opposite effect of what they've intended. Instead of bringing the former Warsaw Pact nations and ex-Soviet Republics back into the fold, so to speak, it's caused them to rally around each other and pushed them closer to the West. I'm actually interested in how Germany will react to this new Russia. If there's a nation Russia is deathly afraid of its the Germans whose military has become stronger since the end of the Cold War.
_________________

[Yvl]

[ViktorFan]

A very important fact in this conflict is: Georgia started it, Georgia not Russia. Georgia started the aggression and wanted to take over south-ossetians capital. Russia showed a reaction on that aggression - adequate or not. But from what I read here, Russia is the "bad boy". Of course Russia doesn't like that USA tries to make the former GUS-countries their satellites. I doubt that the US government would like to see that if they were in the same situation. I have the feeling people in USA think that Saakashvili is a democrat. He may be anything but for sure no democrat. He suppresses the opposition, disobeys civil rights, suppresses the freedom of speech, he faked the elections for Parliament and Government in 2008, people taunt him with corruption and failure.

The former Georgian minister, Georgij Chaindrawa, himself said in an interview with a german weekly magazine that Saakashvili is no democrat. He said that Saakashvili even paid dubious people to threaten the employees of Georgia's TV-station Imedi, an independent TV-station. He also says that the western governments, and mostly the US government don't want to see all that. The US government tells their people that Saakashvili is a democrat. Back in 2004 Saakashvili already tried to take over Tskhinvali but Georgia failed. Mr. Chaindrawa criticized Saakashvili and said it's an adventure which must fail and would cause a big conflict. The US government didn't want to hear that and encouraged him to try it again one day (he mentions Matthew Bryza from the Bush-administration). Saakashvili overestimates himself, the result is a conflict between the western countries and Russia. It's a very interesting interview, too bad that it's only in German so it would make no sense to post the link.

I found another article of a journalist of this said German weekly magazine. He said that some days ago he got a phone call in the middle of the night, he should come to the president's residence. When he got to the residence there were only a few more journalists and Saakashvili entered the room. He was very confused, talked confused and the journalists didn't know what he was talking about and what he wanted. He was surrounded by some advisers who talked american English and who gave him little pieces of paper with keywords (about Human Rights Watch and bombs for example) when he talked too confused. The reporter also said that Saakashvili gives interviews to CNN several times a day so for me it's no surprise that US media seem to report about the conflict a bit (or very, I don't know) one-sided.

A big mistake would be to let Georgia join the NATO very soon. I agree with Germany's former Chancellor Gerd Schröder who said that Georgia should wait for a longer time. I hope they don't get a NATO member as long as their president is Saakashvili.

I found a very interesting video on youtube and I wonder if that's the way US TV handles with unwanted opinions (listen to what the aunt says):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H8XI2Chc6uQ

[Yvl]

That's all news to me. And very informative.
_________________

[Jowy Atreides]

Well, it's currently unknown who started the conflict.

[Ujitsuna]

[ViktorFan]

It's known, Jowy. Here's a Wikipedia-article, even there it's said that Georgia started the conflict:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_South_Ossetia_war

[Jowy Atreides]

Nah, it's really not known. Nobody was really there to confirm what happened. We'll know once the war has been over for a while though.

[Yvl]

I just heard that Russia agreed to a cease fire. Did I hear right? Is this over now?
_________________

[Seraphblade]

Yes. There has been a cease-fire, but I don't think this conflict is over yet. Georgia has accused Russia of holding out on the cease-fire and destroying Georgia's key economic infrastructure before ceasing violence.

[Tullaryx]

It's a cease-fire in name only. Russia has made it clear it will only pull out its troops form the occupied regions when it thinks that the security situation in Georgia is to their satisfaction. Even with both parties having signed the agreement it hasn't stopped the South Ossetian separatists from capturing 13 or more villages near the disputed border in addition to a power plant.

While I agree with VF that this conflict began when Georgia sent troops into South Ossetia to keep the province from breaking away completely the response from Russia has been seen by most as very disproportional. I would give them the benefit of the doubt if they just sent in the necessary troops to back-up the Russian peacekeepers already in South Ossetia but sending in the equivalent of a Motorized Regiment (5,000 or more troops) in addition to airpower and a naval blockade is a tad overkill. It doesn't help Putin and Medvedev that their talk of protecting the South Ossetians and Abhkazians means going beyond those two provinces and capturing villages within Georgia proper and digging in armor and artillery. That doesn't sound like a peacekeeping mission and more like securing territory for the long-haul.

As for Georgia joinng NATO I think there's been some misconception in the press on both sides about that particular tidbit. Yes, Georgia wants to join NATO, but there's been no talk in the West that Georgia was even close to being accepted full membership. While Poland and Hungary have been given full membership those two nations had to meet certain economic and military criterias before a full vote by the NATO members could even be made. Georgia wasn't even close to meeting the economic and military criteria for a vote to be made. There has been discussion in giving Georgia NATO membership evaluation status where they would be given a certain period of time to meet those criterias with assistance from the US and other NATO members. Turkey (a longstanding NATO member) has been keen in getting Georgia become a member of NATO if only just to have a bulwark against the Russians to the north.

By going into Georgia, Russia overestimated the reaction from its neighbors. Instead of being cowed --- albeit they're a tad more wary of Russia now than they were prior to Georgia --- these former Easern Bloc and ex-Soviet Republics are looking more and more to the West for protection. Poland and Ukraine alone constitutes a population around 100 million with a sizable military apparatus to defend themselves if the worst ever came about. But by having the West on their side it gives them the necessary support to keep the worst from happening. Its one thing to fight Georgia, its another to fight two nations who can handle themselves.

One thing that hasn't been mentioned much is one factor that may have pushed Putin and Medvedev to go into Georgia and that's energy. Georgia is part of a 1000-mile long pipeline which connects the oil fields and refineries of Azerbaijan with Turkey. This pipeline allows oil and natural gas from the Caspian region to circumvent having to go through Russian or Iranian territory. The plan for these pipelines was first the brainchild of the Clinton administration (so for once Bush can't be blamed) and continued since then by Bush and the Western European powers. There's plans to build more pipelines with Georgian being a major bridgehead for these new ones. With Russia flush with dollars from its own oil supplies being sold in the oil commodities market having a major source of revenue out of their reach and going directly to their closest rivals and competitors they see as a sort of economic warfare.

If Russia can put a halt on further development of the Azerbaijan-Turkey oil and natural gas pipelines then Russia can further make moves to help the states in the Caspian region in becoming more friendly with the Russia and its own energy interests. Putin and some of his own economic ministers already consider the Azerbaijan oil fields and refineries as Russian property and equipment. While the amount of oil and natural gas pumped and refined in Azerbaijan is only a small part of petroleum produced in the region once all the pipelines have been completed it will help in bringing in more oil revenues to nations such as Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia just as Russia's own oil fields have made billionaires out of some of its own people.

So, while there is the ethnic clash between Russia and Georgia by way of South Ossetia and Akhbazia one has to look at the entire picture and see that it may only be an excuse Russia has been looking for to exert its influence in the region to try and get more control of the Caspian oil and natural gas resources, or at the very least make the West pay them to make the region stable and for oil and gas to flow unimpeded. In the end, it could all boil down to oil once again.
_________________

[ViktorFan]

I agree with what you wrote about Russia and the oil, Tull, that may be a reason. But don't you think that's the same reason for the US involvement there? Why do they support Saakashvili that much? Why does he have US-american advisers? If the oil and gas is the most important reason then it's for both sides.

[Jowy Atreides]

Right, either Georgians or South Ossetians started the conflict. Russia didn't have anything to do with the war in the beginning. However, if South Ossetians separtists attacked Georgian troops because Russia told them to, that would be a significant development, would it not? It's just too early to tell.

This is true for most wars. There are exceptions -- such as Iraq -- when a country formally announces that it will be attacking, but this usually isn't the case. Things just escalate as they go along.

[Yvl]