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The dollar's sharp decline

 
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Rune hunter




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PostPosted: Mon Dec 24, 2007 7:56 pm    Post subject: The dollar's sharp decline Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

I'm sure most of you guys have felt the decline of the dollar. My family and my country has benifited and at the same time been severely affected by it.

From a micro side of things my dad is now earning less becouse he is being payed in dollars. But at the same time I'm at least not paying as much for imported goods(It would be pretty hard for me to buy books/ video games if the dollar was still as high as it was a few years ago.)

It has also prevented an astronomical rise in transportation expense. Considering oil prices are at there highest in a decades i don't want to think about paying around P10.00 per ride(that is around 25 US cents).

On a macro level the decline in the dollar means our country's debt are slowly shrinking. But it also means a decline in the value of our exports.

Well what's yourt take on the fall of the dollar? Is it a boon or a bust for you and your countries circumstances?
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 24, 2007 8:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

As a Canadian, I don't see the current state of the US dollar as much cause for concern. Of course, it has good points (cheaper to import from the US) but also bad points (the Canadian dollar is stronger, which could see business declining in favour of a cheaper alternative).

Considering how the Canadian dollar usually has a lower value than the US dollar (sometimes significantly lower) I don't have much sympathy over the perceived "panic" of the US dollar. Speaking from a Canadian standpoint, the bulk of our exports is to the US, so it is really the main currency which we are concerned about in terms of the value against our own dollar and, with our dollar having been worth less than the US dollar for the better part of the last thirty years, what appears to be a relatively brief decline in the value of the US dollar makes me think this "panic" is an overreaction.
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 24, 2007 10:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

To be quite honest? For most small, everyday purchases in the United States, one would not really notice that the dollar is weaker. The strength of the dollar does not generally impact the price of milk, cola, chicken, lettuce, or whatever it is you buy on a trip to the grocery store. Book, CD, and DVD prices (which many of us have probably dealt with recently, given the season) also do not seem to have drastically changed. So no, it hasn't really impacted me, at least. This is more the kind of thing you hear about than feel, although I could see it mattering for certain purchases.

Also on that subject, the U.S. Dollar seems to have recovered somewhat (partially bounced back from the extreme, perhaps; that can be seen in many sciences, so why not economics?). It's actually hovered around being nearly equal to a Canadian Dollar, lately, give or take a few cents (or fractional cents) depending on the exact day.
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2007 1:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

SwissStopwatch wrote:
To be quite honest? For most small, everyday purchases in the United States, one would not really notice that the dollar is weaker. The strength of the dollar does not generally impact the price of milk, cola, chicken, lettuce, or whatever it is you buy on a trip to the grocery store. Book, CD, and DVD prices (which many of us have probably dealt with recently, given the season) also do not seem to have drastically changed. So no, it hasn't really impacted me, at least. This is more the kind of thing you hear about than feel, although I could see it mattering for certain purchases.

Also on that subject, the U.S. Dollar seems to have recovered somewhat (partially bounced back from the extreme, perhaps; that can be seen in many sciences, so why not economics?). It's actually hovered around being nearly equal to a Canadian Dollar, lately, give or take a few cents (or fractional cents) depending on the exact day.


I will have to disagree with this statement. The dollar amount for the products mentioned has changed within the past 5 years considerably. A dozen eggs used to be well under 1.00 and now the price has risen to well over a dollar. Most food products have seen an increase in price because of both inflation and the decline of the dollar.

I remember a day when the Canadian dollar was worth 60 cents American, and now that its around 98 cents, the economy has slipped somewhat. Now, I live by the border and the market has yet to fully adjust to the American dollar's slipping worth. On many products, the prices listed on them have American and Canadian pricing as if the Canadian was still worth marginally less, so when a product costs a dollar in America, the price in Canada still says 1.20 or 1.25, however with the difference in the two currencies being as low as it is, the Canadians come over to the United States and buy things with the cheaper dollar. By coming over here to shop, they are saving around 20% of their costs. Knowing the economy hasn't quite adjusted to the change in the dollar, and the Christmas season upon us, this has been one of the busiest Christmas shopping seasons in my region's history. Not only do our malls and shopping centres have to deal with the flood of American consumers, we now have to accommodate the Canadian ones who are here exploiting the dollar's weakness. Until the products in Canada are adjusted for the difference in the dollar, we'll continue to see this Canadian consumer rush.

This has led to several problems. Customs for one has really slowed down. Because when you cross the border, you have to claim all things purchased, and then are taxed accordingly to your state or province, the lines at the border have become even longer and more tiresome. Around the holidays, these lines usually run an hour to two hours, but now with the increase in Canadian consumers crossing back into Canada, this has prolonged the wait by another hour or hour and a half. Of course, to try and bypass all the hassle of claiming all things at Customs, people try to hide their purchases in any way possible. This means, all clothing they buy for themselves, they put on and tear tags off. They try and stow everything into one or two bags (as you can buy a certain amount of stuff before they can start taxing you) to make it look like there's less than there really is. A small side effect that has been piling up big time over here in the states is the abandonment of "unnecessary" items that you'd normally not throw away until you got home, like old shoes, shoe boxes, bags, containers and anything that comes with products that isn't necessary for the product itself (instruction manuals come to mind as well). All of this refuse is usually just dumped off in receptacles in the Malls, however with the amount of Canadians doing this, the sanitation people at these malls are having a hard time keeping up with it all.

As an American consumer, when I go to Wal-Mart or a Mall, I expect a certain rush around the holidays. However, even the Malls that aren't as close to the border are getting hit harder. American Consumers who don't want to hassle with the over stuffed malls by the border come to the farther malls to do their shopping thinking that they can avoid the bigger crowds. Since I do not live in the direct range of the border, I don't see as many Canadian consumers as the ones in Buffalo or Niagara Falls, however I am seeing more American residents from the Falls and Buffalo traveling to my neck of the woods to shop. So, the crowd sizes here have increased as well.

So, in that respect, I am definitely feeling the difference in the dollar. On the day to day basis, I also feel it because I am an adult who has to manage his own budget. Not on a smaller basis like people who live with their parents but have car and phone bills and maybe rent, but I have to deal with electric, gas, toiletries, water and sewer, daily living expenses, my own food, and all that jazz that comes with being on ones own. So, I have to watch my dollar quite hard, and when I see things that used to cost my dollar now being a buck thirty or so, I do notice. Hell, even when some of my most common prices jumps a nickel I notice.

I really hope the economy reverts to the way it was more, or at least the Canadian market adjusts to the decline of the American dollar so those Canadians can stop flooding my malls. I swear that if you go to a mall in Niagara Falls USA, over half of the cars in the lot are Canadians. Damn white and Blue plates. Sometimes, the ratio of Canadians to Americans in some malls is 10-1. And some of those "1" Americans are the workers. The Outlet Mall in Niagara Falls rarely has any Americans in it whatsoever. This was the way it was before the dollar shifted too, it just is a good place to shop I guess.

Even when shopping I can tell a Canadian from an American. There's tell tale signs. Canadians are way more polite. Like they say I'm sorry if you bump into them, whereas we New Yorkers either grunt, swear at you for being in our way or ignore it altogether. I'm not joking, we're a crude lot. The Canucks also have an accent. Its not that much different from ours here in Buffalo area, but there's slight differences and a good ear can pick them up. But now that I realize it, thats sorta off topic.

The dollar's strength versus other currencies though mean little to me. Like the difference between a Dollar and a British Pound or a Lira or Yen, I don't deal with that at all, so it doesn't concern me. Mostly, I care about inflation and gas prices on the rise.
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Elzamine

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2007 1:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Lol, I have to laugh. The Canadian cities close to the borders had to deal with this every Christmas when the American dollar was up significantly over this. Considering the two dollars are more or less taken as par, or close to, at the moment. The Christmas rush for the states this year compared to some of the rushes the Canadian's had when there was a huge difference on the two. I understand the price differences in things eventually evened things out a bit, but even still, with the American dollar at it's highest and the Canadian one at it's lowest, the difference was enough to still draw the American's to shop here.

Slowly but surely, Canadian prices on items are dropping to be more in tune with the American prices, which is nice. Sure the drop in the dollar is being watched, but as for a panic or crisis, I don't think I'd go that far. Living in Canada though, I'm used to paying the high price for things.

The good side of things is that Canadian prices are dropping, and that makes me happy. It's also affordable to order in fabrics and such for my art now that the prices are more balanced. I'm rather happy with the American dollar dropping (sorry Americans) but if things keep as they are, then Canadians can stop paying 30-60% more on retail items, which I think is just absurd, considering the rise of the Canadian dollar over the last few years. When I pay 90 for an item here, but can cross the border to Maine and pay 60, you can be sure I bloody well notice.

The problem with the mass wave of Canadians shopping in America, is that the Canadian retail near the borders really hurts. I happen to be in a border region. Retail sales are quite a bit down, which means for most basic retail, hours are down, too. You gain some, you lose some.

The thing a lot of Canadian's forget though, is buying electronics. Remember, if you buy an electronic in the states, if it catches fire and burns your house down or whatever, insurance doesn't cover it ^^ Info a lot of people, surprisingly, didn't know!

(Just a side note to Red's comment about Canadian's being more polite, haha. I've heard that a lot, actually. I remember when some American's I knew were visiting. The woman at the convenience store asked if I wanted a straw, and I said yes please. They were amazed by the question and answer, saying they were never that polite. Also that we said excuse me to pass by people in aisles. Haha, it's funny. I'm in the maritimes (eastern Canada) and the people are known for being really polite out here though. Small population gets you that, I suppose. Not to nit and nag on Amercans vs Canandian's though. I've been treated politely in America, and rudely in Canada, so it really depends where you are!)
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2007 1:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

What I mean to say is that the changes are such that you don't notice them unless you're really looking. And you have to buy most of these things anyway, or at last something similar. Sure, things are more expensive, but not in such a way that you recoil upon looking at the price tag every day, like you would if you went shopping tomorrow and saw that a gallon of milk suddenly cost $20.
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2007 1:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Any analyst will tell you that a weak dollar, for certain periods of time, is a very good thing. Of couse, any other nation would have hit a recession by now, but US economy is robust enough to keep it afloat for a nearly indefinite amount of time. So long as the annual budget is shaved down bit by bit and oil doesn't suddenly run dry, it'll bounce back.
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2007 2:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

A weak dollar can help the US economy, because it makes American-produced goods less expensive and more attractive to foreign buyers. I could care less about the current state of the dollar, so long as it doesn't cause a drastic inflation problem here, and thus causing the price of American goods in America to rise dramatically. As long as this doesn't happen, and the price of goods here stay consistent, I really won't care how our currency fares against another currency. I don't travel abroad, or import, so it doesn't affect me or any other average American.

The only people who should be concerned are economists, Federal Reserve Board Members, and entrepreneurs / business executives. If you're not among those, then you're just a fool buying into the regular asinine hype that our stupid, American media loves to thrive on.
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2007 4:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

I hate this dollar decline thing, WHY its because our currency(peso) is increasing its value.I hate that fact because overseas workers suffer from this decline....Dollars declining prices going up,that dosent realy make any sense at all
IF the dollar is going down and the peso increasing then prices here in the philippines shoud go down, but unforunatly the opposite is happening.

But dollars is a consistenet currency. I am sure a month or two from now it will go back to its original value......God i hope this happens this will benefit alot of overseases filipino workers.

Quote:

It has also prevented an astronomical rise in transportation expense. Considering oil prices are at there highest in a decades i don't want to think about paying around P10.00 per ride(that is around 25 US cents).


Im guessing rune hunter is from the philippines

Quote:

On a macro level the decline in the dollar means our country's debt are slowly shrinking. But it also means a decline in the value of our exports.


NOt realy its just keeps on growing.....IMagine if the dollar came close to 35 P damm we will get realy poor and overseas workers as well.
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2007 4:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Don't worry too much about it. Either the "automatic mechanisms" will do the work themselves and put the dollar back where it was, or the government/Federal Reserve will take measures to do that. Either that or the US will go down in flames like something only seen in the big depression.
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2007 5:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Quote:
I hate this dollar decline thing, WHY its because our currency(peso) is increasing its value.I hate that fact because overseas workers suffer from this decline....Dollars declining prices going up,that dosent realy make any sense at all
IF the dollar is going down and the peso increasing then prices here in the philippines shoud go down, but unforunatly the opposite is happening.


Actual that is not true. Wherever you may be in the world inflation(rise in prices) is a constant. What the dollars decline is doing is slowing down the rise of prices.

Btw, any economist would be more worried if prices actual started to go DOWN rather than up. The would mean a deflation and if you want an exampe of the effects of deflation just look at japan a decade ago.

Quote:
NOt realy its just keeps on growing.....IMagine if the dollar came close to 35 P damm we will get realy poor and overseas workers as well.


On a positive side note to this the increase in the peso would held dissuade people from going abroad. And if fewer people are working in other countries they could help aliviate the brain drain in our own country.
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2007 8:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Rune hunter wrote:
Btw, any economist would be more worried if prices actual started to go DOWN rather than up. The would mean a deflation and if you want an exampe of the effects of deflation just look at japan a decade ago.


Assuming that extra tax levied on such items (eg GST) has already been removed, since that wouldn't then be deflation it would simply be less taxes which would force down prices. (eg Australia has a 10% GST, so should that tax go prices would be cheaper, 10c per $1, which generally adds up rather quickly)

As for the US dollar decline, one thing healthy growth does is also limit the tourism industry because suddenly your dollar isn't worth as much as it used to be, which is harmful for particular countries who saw a sharp increase in their dollar.
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 26, 2007 10:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

The dollar will keep declining as long as it keeps getting printed by the Federal Reserve without anything backing it, inflation will go through the roof and the value of the currency will go down. The only reason it's lasted so long is because the dollar is the reserve currency of the world, however the more consumer based America becomes, the less reliant other countries will be on it when their currencies gain value.
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 26, 2007 4:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Rune hunter wrote:

Btw, any economist would be more worried if prices actual started to go DOWN rather than up. The would mean a deflation and if you want an exampe of the effects of deflation just look at japan a decade ago.


Indeed, deflation is a very bad thing.

In the US, there are two major busts where deflation occurred. The first was right after the Civil War. The second was a key reason for the Great Depression in the US. A real drop in prices actually has a far more disastrous affect than a slight increase (ie: inflation). Contrary to popular opinion, a steady, controlled inflation is actually a good thing.
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 26, 2007 9:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Well as long as the oil money keeps coming in and i do not have to pay income tax all is well.
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