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Scarlet Assassin
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 Posted: Mon Mar 14, 2005 6:56 pm Post subject: |
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While Fliktor, has a valid point, you can't forget that Tinto doesn't seem to play well with others for very long. After uniting with the rest of Dunan to overthrow Highland, they quickly snubbed them. And after the president's own daughter faught along side the Grasslands and Zexen, they had border struggles with the Zexen confederacy. This has shown that Tinto will make an alliance with whomever they see fit at the time, and said alliances will have no bearing on future conduct.
While Harmonia stretching their hand out for the aid of Tinto is a very unlikely prospect, if it were to happen, Tinto would most likely take that hand in a heartbeat. Gustav seems like the kind of leader that is heavily interested in expansion, and getting into the good grace's of Harmonia seems (to me at least) like a good way to go about expanding. IMO Gustav only sent TInto troops to ensure his own daughter's safety, not because of the ideals that the grasslands and Zexen represented. He most likely had no interest in helping to perpetuate the existence of these two nations.
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Beethoven4567
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| Posted: Tue Mar 15, 2005 12:26 pm Post subject: |
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Well i think i can agree with what Scarlet assassin said. Tinto is an opportunistic nation and it would go to great lengths to expand its territory to feed its growing population. Although it currently trades with Zexen there's no telling that it wouldn't pursue a more aggresive policy in dealing with Zexen in the future. As for the Grasslands, its close proximity to Harmonia is likened as an egg near a bull's horns. While Hugo might have the True Fire Rune, one day Harmonia might invade the Grasslands with an army that is commanded by a Bishop with an even more powerful rune. Once Hugo is killed, the Grasslanders would flee north, possibly to the Nameless Lands.
In the end, Harmonia would be able to acquire the Grasslands and its military would be right next door toward Zexen. So, in my opinion, i think the Grasslands would become a Harmonian province in the future, and the Karayans, Chishans, Alma Kinans, Lizards and Ducks would have to flee/migrate north to escape Harmonian persecution and enslavement. :cry:
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Axiose
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| Posted: Tue Mar 15, 2005 3:04 pm Post subject: |
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In that sense then, Harmonia could invade any nation and decimate them. But they don't. They've tried twice already to invade and destroy Grasslands. They may very well try and third and forth time, but that doesn't make it any more likely to succeed. Especially now that they are already united and they actually have True Rune bearers, Hugo with a True Fire Rune and Chris with the True Water Rune.
The point everyone seems to make assumptions about is Tinto. Yes, I agree Tinto is an opportunistic nation, and they do want to expand, but that seems to be into Zexen, not Grasslands. Whilst Gustav is interested in expansion, he has shown no like towards Harmonia at all.
With the current information we have about the characters, it seems unlikely Gustav would accpet Harmonia's invitation to join them and destroy Grassslands and Zexen. He would more than likely fight with Grasslands and Zexen against Harmonia as there would be more chance of his nation growing then. Otherwise Harmonia has control of a huge nation which Tinto would be powerless against.
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| IMO Gustav only sent TInto troops to ensure his own daughter's safety, not because of the ideals that the grasslands and Zexen represented. He most likely had no interest in helping to perpetuate the existence of these two nations. |
Very true indeed. Lilly most likely forced them to come anyway. But that doesn't mean he wants Harmonia to take over either.
At the end of any war within Suikoden, the newly formed nations are weak, but they aren't immediately invaded again. Harmonia wouldn't be ready to attack Grasslands for a while, and if they ever did again, Grasslands would have healed their wounds from the second Fire Bringer war.
If Harmonia wanted to invade Grasslands again, then the Tinto/Zexen 1 year war that happened five years after Suikoden III, would have been a perfect time to invade. Zexen and Tinto were already occupied and distracted, as were the Lizard Clans, so if they wanted to crush Grasslands, that would've been a perfect time to send forth a large invasion force.
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Wiseman
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| Posted: Tue Mar 15, 2005 6:26 pm Post subject: |
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If Harmonia were going to invade Grasslands again, they would probably wait until the prejudices between Grasslands and Zexen set in again so that they wouldn't be united, (at least not from the start) thus it would be easier for Harmonia to take over. Maybe that's why they waited so long to attack the second time.
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Beethoven4567
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| Posted: Wed Mar 16, 2005 6:24 am Post subject: |
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Well in Suiko 3 the Zexen people have always thought of the Grasslanders as barbarians and uncivilized people. It was only during the Harmonian invasion that they have to unite and fight side by side against the Harmonians under the banner of the Flame Champion. That being said, there's a probability that the Zexen Federation would take aggresive action against the Grasslanders in the future due to the simple fact that they are barbarians and have a different culture than Zexen. Or maybe they won't invade the Grasslands because they have to deploy 60-80% of their military near the Tinto border to guard against possible Tinto incursions/invasions of Zexen territory.
So the Grasslanders would not face immediate threats from Zexen apart from a few minor skirmishes between the Lizard Clan and the Zexen Knights. But as for the Harmonians, they pose a long term threat to the existence of the Grassland Clans. :(
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Scarlet Assassin
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| Posted: Wed Mar 16, 2005 11:32 am Post subject: |
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| Maybe that's why they waited so long to attack the second time. |
They waited 50 years to attack in between because there was a treaty of non-aggression between the two. I don't remember if they signed another treaty at the end of the second fire bringer war, but if they did, Harmonia would not break that aggreement.
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| That being said, there's a probability that the Zexen Federation would take aggresive action against the Grasslanders in the future due to the simple fact that they are barbarians and have a different culture than Zexen. |
CHris has a true rune, and thus will be commanding the Zexen military for some time. At the end of Suikoden 3 she came to respect the Grasslanders. In fact, most of Zexen (to the best of my recollection) respected the Grasslands at the end of Suikoden 3. So an attack by Zexen, on the grasslands is highly unlikely. Not to mention that the LIzard clan was involved in the border disputes between Tinto and Zexen, if you remember, the Lizard clan had an immense amount of respect for the Zexen knights, and would probably side with them during that dispute. Zexen and Grasslands will not be fighting any time soon, I don't know how I can stress that point any further.
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Otherwise Harmonia has control of a huge nation which Tinto would be powerless against.
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Unless the Zexen territory, and some of the grasslands were promised to Tinto. Harmonia seems like an honorable nation (They're assitance to the obviously wounded Highland kingdom thanks to old allegiances, the respect for the non-aggression pact between themselves and the grasslands.) It is unlikely that Harmonia would betray Tinto so easily after they aided them. However, the idea that Harmonia is going to attack the grasslands any time soon is rather far fetched. They've suffered defeats from Jowston (now Dunan) and the Fire Bringer as of late, I doubt the people of Harmonia would stand for another military campaign against a force that has already pushed them back twice. (THe evidence for the Harmonian revolution is really building up now. I may have to spend some time thinking about this.) I doubt the Hikusaak and Sasarai would attack the Grasslands again in the near future, and if they did, I doubt they'd have much support from their own forces, making t hem a much more easily defeated force (especially with the lines of Chris and Hugo running so deep) Harmonia simply poses no threat to the grasslands as of now. The only way that they would is if they achieved a great military victory, prior to the attack, or if the nation went through some sort of golden age or rebirth. The only other opportunity Harmonia has is the war between Zexen and Tinto, this would provide an opening in the grassland defenses (since they'd be fighting alone, or with aid from the Nameless lands.)
In summation, it is my opinion that the Grasslands are safe for the time being, but as the old saying goes "nothing lasts forever".
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Beethoven4567
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| Posted: Wed Mar 16, 2005 12:33 pm Post subject: |
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The ongoing political turmoil in Harmonia between the People's Faction and the Temple Faction is what probably made Harmonia reluctant to invade any nation. But who really holds real power over the Harmonian military? Hikusaak might be the chief-of-staff or supreme commander of the Harmonian army but is there a possibility that certain members of the Harmonian army supported the People's Faction. Aren't Bishops the commanders of Harmonian military units?
Perhaps Harmonia risks civil war if some priests and decision-makers decides to invade other nations. So the Grasslanders would not be under any threat from Harmonia's 'Paper Tiger'. But in my opinion, the Harmonian army is more adept at defending than attacking.
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Scarlet Assassin
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| Posted: Wed Mar 16, 2005 1:52 pm Post subject: |
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| Perhaps Harmonia risks civil war if some priests and decision-makers decides to invade other nations. |
I'm way ahead of you. I've already begun writing up a theory on the possible civil war/revolt that would/could take place in Harmonia were another military campaign launched. Once I've finished it I'll post it.
And it's my opinion that Sasarai is in charge of the Harmonian military. If you notice, once he joined you, you weren't really fighting Harmonia anymore. Sasarai is probably one of the highest ranking military officers in Harmonia, but Hikusaak still holds power over him, wherever the hell he is.
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Beethoven4567
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| Posted: Fri Mar 18, 2005 12:03 pm Post subject: |
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Hmmm.... I've always thought that Sasarai was only one of the top commanders of the Harmonian army. I think Sasarai is just the top commander of the Harmonian army's Southern Command. Remember, we haven't known the true extent of the vastness of the Holy Kingdom of Harmonia's territory, so it's possible that Sasarai was only the top general/Bishop in charge of the Southern Regional Army and not the entire military itself. Harmonia's territory could possibly span 2-3 continents, which could explain why they're having a tough time maintaning stability and suppresing rebellions/dissent in conquered territories.
Maybe in future Suikoden games, we would finally get to know another nation with equal power that is Harmonia's biggest threat. This nation is what probably made Harmonia held back on any invasions of other countries for fear of sparking a brutal war with its main rival.
Anyway, in my opinion, Sasarai is probably one in 6-10 of Harmonia's top military commanders in charge of their respective military regions, with Hikusaak having authority over every single one of them.
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Scarlet Assassin
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| Posted: Fri Mar 18, 2005 12:42 pm Post subject: |
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| which could explain why they're having a tough time maintaning stability and suppresing rebellions/dissent in conquered territories. |
The reason they have that problem is that their territories and prospective colonies are all seperated from them by geological barriers. With regards to highland and Grasslands, they both have mountain ranges that sever them from Harmonia's center (in means of DIRECT routes anyway.) Thus everything is a bit slower to get there and back.
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| This nation is what probably made Harmonia held back on any invasions of other countries for fear of sparking a brutal war with its main rival. |
I'm not sure which invasions you're talking about that they held back on. If you're talking about the seemingly small amount of troops they sent to attack the grasslands, that's probably because the skirmish was relatively short, and the grasslands were probably only fighting the first wave of attack. I doubt that any other nation had anything to do with this.
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| Anyway, in my opinion, Sasarai is probably one in 6-10 of Harmonia's top military commanders in charge of their respective military regions, with Hikusaak having authority over every single one of them. |
There is no evidence of this. Everyone we've ever seen bows down to Sasarai I think it's more likely that Sasarai speaks directly to Hikusaak and relays his orders, meaning that he is the authority. No Harmonian thus far (With the exception of Luc) has challenged Sasarai, doesn't that seem a little conspicuous to you? Don't you think that if Sasarai had contemporaries they would have stepped in at some point?
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Wiseman
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| Posted: Fri Mar 18, 2005 2:03 pm Post subject: |
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Chris may control the military, but she does not control the way the people of Zexen feel inside. You think once Grassland and Zexen decided to fight together everyone was happy with it? I doubt it. I'm sure there were people on both sides who were outraged. Yet they fought beside each other out of necessity. It's just like in today's American society, segregation was ended 40 years ago and African-American's earned equal rights, but there are still plenty of people in this country who hate African-Americans simply because of the color of their skin. Surely there are still Zexeners who hate Grasslanders simply because they are from Grassland, and Grasslanders who hate Zexeners simply because they are from Zexen.
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Axiose
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| Posted: Fri Mar 18, 2005 2:25 pm Post subject: |
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Chris may not have official control, but she has the people's respect far more than the Council Members. She is the Silver Maiden. Whilst this may be useful for the council to "manipulate" the Zexen people, if Chris rebels, or chooses differnetly, the people will more than likely side with Chris - or at least a large portion of them will. Much like the rebellion of Miklotov and Camus in Matilda. She is a figurehead, and if she refuses to fight Grasslands, then there would likely be few in the army who would.
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| Surely there are still Zexeners who hate Grasslanders simply because they are from Grassland, and Grasslanders who hate Zexeners simply because they are from Zexen. |
As will there be in any culture anywhere. Unfortunately that can never be solved it would seem. But I don't think this makes Grasslands any more likely to be a target of further war than it makes any other nation we've seen in Suikoden.
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Wiseman
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| Posted: Fri Mar 18, 2005 4:54 pm Post subject: |
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| Fliktor wrote: |
| But I don't think this makes Grasslands any more likely to be a target of further war than it makes any other nation we've seen in Suikoden. |
Nor did I ever say it would. My point was just that there will be hate between citizens of both countires for a while, if not forever.
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Axiose
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| Posted: Fri Mar 18, 2005 6:10 pm Post subject: |
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Hate is a strong word to use I feel - my interpretation of events would be that relations between Zexen and Grasslands were not of hate, but, well if not understanding, then acceptance. Whether they get along is irrelevant.
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Acheron
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| Posted: Sat Mar 19, 2005 3:37 pm Post subject: |
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I think that the Grasslands will stay independent clans for a time but soon realize the benefit of being united. Become a Union of Clans so to speak. Zexen will probably form a strong alliance after the clans unify, because as it is now it would be stupid to form an alliance with so many nations. Just makes for sloppyness in politics which is never good. They would ally with them after they unify because that would be smart. Tinto and Zexen would go at it and the Lizard Clan would help because for a show of good faith and they like to battle. Good experience and they become well versed in combating various opponents.
Tinto will become a superpower possesing 22 of the 27 True Runes and proceed to benevolently rule the Suiko World(A Tintonian can dream can't he?). Harmonia will remain a superpower and probably end up being everyones enemy and still put up a good fight. I'm thinking Scarlett Moon Empire, Island Nations, and Queendom of Faleena will have various conflicts due mostly inpart to territory. Cant say I know too much about the situations of Highland and Dunan and Toran and Jowston so I wont make any predictions here. Just Thoughts. |
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