Military Strategy Case Scenario II

[Death]

Thank u, Thank u, I like writing scenarios and this type of stuff.

:D
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**Sects, sects, sects. Is that all you monks ever think about?** ~ The Edge Master.

[Aurelien]

Actually to be quite honest, I see two big flaws (and a few little ones) with Death's strategy. No offense personally of course, this is just a comment. The big ones are:

1. The strategy was supposed to be a pre-emptive attack to give Atastria Kingdom the upperhand on the war between the two nations. By sending Lud the Mad as a "spy" and even pretending to allow Varkamond Empire to attack first, you lose the pre-emptive attack advantage. They would be in "alert" mode already by the time you sent Lud the Mad to their fort in Edicdee. Sure the destroy from within is still effective, but you lose the pre-emptive attack that you should've done with the strategy.

2. The strategy relies too much on Dayd managing to make Lud the Mad joining Atastria Kingdom. If that didn't work, the whole strategy wouldn't be able to be done at all. There would be no spy, there would be no destroying from within, and there would be no pinching Grotha from Cartleen and Edicdee either.

The smaller ones are:

1. Enemies of Atastria doesn't necessarily mean allies of Varkamond. So while it is possible for Varkamond Empire to believe Lud the Mad, it's quite a small chance IMO. Especially since they would've known that Lud the Mad has a brother who is in the Atastria Kingdom army.

2. Pirates usually work independently unless offered to join a side. They are very rarely the one who approached with the alliance offer. More reason for Edicdee to be suspicious of Lud the Mad's offer.

3. Grotha only has 25,000 soldiers in total while you have 40,000 soldiers in Cartlen (plus another 10,000 there as well, total of 50,000 soldiers). With his number being half of the total of soldiers you have in Cartlen, even with Lud the Mad's "plan" to attack Bosmond at the same time, it is quite an unlikely move to take. You just do not attack a town from the front like that when the opponent has twice as many soldiers as you have.

But it's still a good strategy of the destroying from within. To me though, it's just not reliable enough to happen like that. The strategy relies more on "hoping that the other people acted like you predicted" rather than "making your own move to control the situation and forcing the opponent to act as you predicted".
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~City-States of Jowston and Tinto Republic~
06.06.2004 - 20.01.2008

[Death]

Your reply is much longer than my original strategy :)

Thanx for the infos, i just got too excited i forgot i'm the one who is supposed to be offensive, haha.

I'll try better next time.

By the way, did you actually analyze my strategy or the flaws are obvious?
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**Sects, sects, sects. Is that all you monks ever think about?** ~ The Edge Master.

[Aurelien]

It wasn't that obvious if it's presented as a separate stand-alone strategy. But it's quite obvious to me because I also participated in making strategy as well. Hence, I realized about the pre-emptive and the fact that Lud the Mad might or might not join.

So overally, I think you got a great idea (I never thought of destroying from inside to be honest), but the implementation of the idea needs to be more reliable than that.
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~City-States of Jowston and Tinto Republic~
06.06.2004 - 20.01.2008

[KoRnholio]

Now that I've posted my strategy and have had a chance to read the other strategies, I'll first comment on Bugg's.

My big concern is that you take the 10,000 capital guard troops from Cartlen as reinforcements. That seems very, very risky, I've never heard of even the most aggressive countries doing that. Not only that, but even if strategy-wise it wouldn't make a difference(which it may or may not), your King wouldn't necessarily approve of leaving him unguarded, and I don't think you'd be permitted to do it.

[Aurelien]

True, I noticed that too after I posted my strategy. It's a flaw for sure, but I think it's quite a small one that might have no significance at all because at that time, I've already had control over Invelk and Edicdee area. The only threat from Varkamond Empire was the one from Celdeen, and they must go through me first had they want to attack Cartlen. So in a sense, sending 10,000 soldiers from Cartlen would also strengthen their own defense (because I would be the one acting as the defense of the nation from foreign attack).

And I might not mention this in the strategy post, but it's also possible that the 10,000 that I left in Bosmond could be divided into two units and be split between Bosmond and Cartlen with 5,000 soldiers each while the 10,000 soldiers from Cartlen could still be used by me for the purpose of the war. So Cartlen would not be left empty without guards. If I propose this alternate to the King of Atastria, I'm sure that he would grant my request because Cartlen's distance to my post in Invelk area would be way closer than from Bosmond. So it's more efficient if I ask for reinforcement from Cartlen, while leaving the soldiers from Bosmond to be the replacements in Cartlen instead.

But then again, the strategy made was only estimation in the first place anyway. It's not meant to be followed exactly down to the numbers (hey, I could have more than 10,000 casualties, Varkamond Empire might have been prepared, or they might have great strategist working for them, we don't know). Cartlen having 10,000 soldiers and me asking for reinforcement from there wouldn't necessarily mean I got all 10,000 soldiers. Let's say the King only allow me to use 5,000 of them or let's say that I can only have 5,000 but from Bosmond. That'd give me a total of roughly 25,000 soldiers in Invelk for my unit. 25,000 soldiers looks to be less than 30,000 soldiers of what Celdeen has, but using the very same logic (of no one wants to leave the capital unguarded), Varkamond Army cannot attack me with all 30,000 soldiers either. So I could still hold my ground in Invelk with or without the reinforcement from Cartlen.

By the time Rodric's army finished cleaning up on the north and come back to Invelk, I'll be back in numerical advantage again, and proceed as planned. The reinforcement from Cartlen isn't really *that* important because the main objective of my unit in Invelk is to defend that area and not to attack. So having a bit less or equal amount of soldiers would not really matter that much. I hope you're satisfied with my answer. Thank you for the comment.
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~City-States of Jowston and Tinto Republic~
06.06.2004 - 20.01.2008

[KoRnholio]

But doesn't your strategy also plan on attacking Celdeen head on to finish them off? This is a city which will probably be defended by 30,000 soldiers (they'd be pretty stupid to send any of their troops out to battle against the superior numbered force) and in hilly terrain. Plus its their capital city, and their last city. The defense is going to be very fierce, and just simply attacking it is probably going to require a much larger troop advantage. That's why I didn't want to do that in the first place.

If I were to make a second strategy that required taking over the whole country in one swoop instead of just crippling it, it would definately involve goading some troops out of Celdeen before Celdeen is their last stand.

[Aurelien]

I honestly don't see any problem with taking over Celdeen at all. Yes, it's the last city, yes they have 30,000 soldiers, and yes the defense would be fierce. But I still hold the numerical advantage. Without any special tactic by them, there isn't much that they could do other than being a sitting duck that waits to be defeated. Unless somehow something goes really wrong that I was left with no numerical advantage, I just don't see why it's a problem at all. And if I did screw it up so that I lose the numerical advantage, then obviously I don't deserve to win the war and I definitely deserve to lose.

And you mentioned in your initial strategy that you would simply siege Celdeen had the King wished for you to take over the whole country. Meaning that you think that it's still possible to defeat Celdeen without goading some troops out of the city beforehand. So IMO, I still don't see any problem at all by attacking Celdeen straight forward.

Keep in mind that the term "straight forward" here doesn't necessarily mean only attacking without any strategy, but more like attacking openly to take over the city and not just to stall or being a diversion or whatnot.
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~City-States of Jowston and Tinto Republic~
06.06.2004 - 20.01.2008

[KoRnholio]

If you ask me, something like a 4 to 3 numerical advantage isn't going to mean as much as the rest of the factors. I think attackers have an inherent disadvantage to overcome, and while maybe 4 to 3 will do it for an open battle, but not against a nation's last stand in an easily defendable area.

As for my strategy, thats why I said I would siege Celdeen if I had to continue fighting, because I didn't want to attack it with 30,000 soldiers in it. And I know you could've done something like that in your strategy, but you didn't say that. You just said you would attack it, and that's it. A siege isn't really attacking. Its kind of goading them into attacking you.

[Starslasher]

If it was me, i would choose Dayd and Solomiyov. Here is what i would do:

I would take Dayd to convince Lud the Mad to stop the pirating on our seas and I would have Solomiyov persuade him to eventually join us. When he joins us, i would have him defend the Atastrian borders from other pirates, but would like to have them join us. Solomiyov again would have to convince the defeated pirates to join us.

Once the threat of the pirates has been removed, the 20,000 soldiers at Bosmond will be set for a siege at Edicdee along with the pirates and 5,000 of my troops. Sonomiyov will have called upon a fog to hide our troops and have the captured soldiers and officers defect to our side. Should Grotha submit under my command, i would have him bring all his troops from the three fortresses under the Atastrian Army.

Afterwards, i would have the pirates, under Colonel Lud's command, raid the Varkamordian ports, namely Glickway and Hopalway, having the trrops divert their attention up north.

However....after two months, i would have 10,000 of Grotha's troops invade into the territory in question, while simultaneously have my 35,000 troops along with another 10,000 of Grotha's army spearhead into the Capital Celdeen to capture the Emperor Ruthaal and wait for the command of the good King Dunayn II.

Ta da! :!:
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Guardian of Greenhill & Devoted Protector of Oulan



Bork! Bork! Bork!

[Decado]

[Aurelien]

[KoRnholio]

[Alkazar]

Ah, pirates. It seems everything these days involves pirates; awesome.

First, my lieutenants. Easy enough choices, actually.

First, I chose Dayd because he can convince his brother to halt attacks on Bosmond; this would free up some of the troops stationed there - never one to completely abandon defenses on a city, I'd add about 15000 to my own numbers, leaving 5000 behind to watch the city (my current force = 55000). Also, if possible, he would convince his brother to attack my enemy, the forces in Varkamond by sea, through pirate raids. I'm making an assumption that one of the fortresses at Edicdee is on the water...

I chose my second lieutenant as Solomiyov. Anyone who read my last strategy knows I'm a fan of using morale breakers on the enemy forces. Defections are always amongst the highest cause of falling morale, and the ability to convince defeated enemies to join my cause can be used to further crumbling morale.

First and foremost, the entire force is brought to bear on Edicdee - 55,000 of my soldiers, along with the pirate forces, will attack the fortress bordering the water. My forces, doubling the amount there, plus the pirate attacks would be far more than enough to capture a single fortress. This then becomes a strongpoint and would be used to launch simultaneous attacks on the other two fortresses, 20,000 a piece with the remaining 15,000 staying behind to hold the fortress. I've made an assumption here that I wouldn't need to use a second commander because the forces would be close enough to be commanded from a single point. Solomiyov would assist in this battle with the use of magic, and, when the enemy is on the edge of defeat, drawing defectors to my side. Assuming minimal defections (approx. 10%), this leaves me with approximately 60,000 soldiers at Edicdee before calculating casualties... so, approximately 56,000 (this is supposed to be a surprise attack, and with the pirates' assistance, that might even be a fairly high casualty rate); those who will not defect are kept as prisoners. Chances are, Grotha would defect, being an intelligent human being; however, I will assume he didn't, and will keep him as a prisoner...

Leaving 10,000 troops behind to defend Edicdee, my forces most eastward along the fields and then move northwards, towards Invelk. With only 5,000 troops defending the city, several prisoners are released to the town, allowing them to know of our passage to the southeast; however, after releasing the prisoners, I'd send approximately 5,000 to the west of the city by stealth (the east being blocked by the mountains, and the north too risky). The attack would be simple; draw the attention of the enemy to the south, then have the small force attack into the side of the town, where it's not as heavily defended. The total force would be enough to easily defeat the defenders; once again, with defections and casualties, my forces would remain constant at approximately 45,000 troops with me; once again, those who do not defect are kept prisoner.

Now, there would be two choices from here:
1. Attack Celdeen head on, not worrying about the northern cities
2. Defeat the northern cities

Conquering each individual city in the north would result in a long, drawn out campaign; defeat of the capital would easily break morale further than the loss on Invelk and Edicdee already has. Therefore, I chose option 1. Leaving 10,000 behind to defend Invelk, and drawing 10,000 troops from Edicdee, I turn my attention to the capital, leaving the pirates to raid the northern cities and keep their attention away from me.

With 40,000 troops plus prisoners, I've decided that a siege situation would be in order; after encircling the city, ensuring there is no ways in or out, let Solomiyov have one last talk with the prisoners. Those who still refuse to defect (I figure I have approximately 5,000 prisoners, 500 of which would defect - I've been using 10% as my calculation number). 4,000 of the remaining prisoners - without armour, food, or weapons - are released to the city; Grotha is kept as prisoner. For three days, the forces would sit, not attacking, simply defending against any small raiding parties who tried to charge out. Then, on the dawn of the fourth day, if Grotha has not joined by now, he will be executed, along with most of the remaining prisoners. Usually, I'd try to avoid executions, but during a siege, breaking morale is key. Those surviving prisoners would be released, allowing the news of Grotha's death to reach the Varakmond soldiers. And then, the attack would begin. Solomoiyov would again be a focal part of the force, using magic to bombard the city, while standard siege weaponry would be used the city. Eventually, with increased numbers of people in the city, and no food supply, morale would begin to break.

On the off chance that someone from the northern cities actually organized together, and travelled over land by a route different than Invelk (which would aboslutely murder morale), they would be dealt with simply by moving a small portion of my force to attack.

After several days of sieging and bombardment, the final attack would be made. Between broken morale, and casualties from the bombardment (both magical and mundane), it would be a rather easy fight. The main purpose would be to reach the Emperor and either force a surrender or else execute him; surrender would end of the battle nearly immediately, and execution would dwindle morale further. Celdeen could be conquered in a matter of weeks from the initial deployment.

I'd go into potential flaws in the plan, but they're rather simple; mostly, it would just be the situations where I judged morale breaking sooner than it actually did, or where my defection/casualty rates were off. In the end, I'd expect Celdeen taken with approximatelt 25% of my force being considered "acceptable" casualty loss.
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[Decado]