Betting on battle RESULTS

[Pilika]

How about we start betting on battles. Like who will attack who, who will win, who will be used, will there be a duel? Of course people from the two nations battling will not be able to bet on that battle. This is still work in progress. Any thoughts?
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[Tonberry]

I think it is a wonderful idea, but I think all members betting must first get permission from nation leaders. It would not be pretty if someone bet 10,000 soldiers and lost without even getting permission.

All in all, I think it is an exceptional idea. If you need any help regulating the betting, ask me. I'll gladly help out.

[Pilika]

Well of course I would need help!
Any one willing to help organize this pm me so we figure this out and start as soon as possible.
Thank you!
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[Tonberry]

Okay, I'll do just that.

[Horned Loa]

I've done a similar thing within Harmonia and I'll let you know straight away it is EXTREMELY difficult to run. I'm doing it with only around 15 people (only about 7 are making actual bets) and have far less battles than here, not to mention that three of us are doing it and its still tiresome. Thats just a word of caution there but rather then talk like an ass and just complain I'll try and help by telling you how I went around some of the issues that arise.

First of all, if you're going to run this make sure you get a TEAM of willing participants as this will be a continuous project and you'll NEED to keep coming back to update. Ensuring that you have three or so people available every day would be ideal.

Secondly, make sure you don't stretch yourself too thin. There are five categories with six to eight fighters in each. Thats only ROUND ONE!!! So make sure you calculate the total number of fights before you consider doing this because you might find yourself getting 50+ bets on EACH of those fights. From what you said, you're also planning on making MULTIPLE betting options which I would suggest you forget. One to two (maximum) should be more than enough and would make the event very interesting indeed. My personal suggestion would be only two betting categories: Who will win the fight and an overall bet that can only be made at the beginning as to who the overall champion will be.

As for the people FROM the nations battling not being able to bet, I do believe that restriction is necessary since the entire thing is randomized and the only one that will know the results early on would be Iscalio but member can bet on the opposition and lose on purpose just to gain a stack of soldiers. Wouldn't want to see that now. The other alternative would be to implement a different form of currency instead of soldiers for events such as this (and possibly other future events).

As Everyone's Grudge already mentioned, there are certain nations that do not allow for such a thing to happen and I doubt any nation leader wishes for 10 of their members to lose massive soldiers through betting. On the other hand, certain nations could gain INSANE amounts of soldiers, making them almost indestructible. If I took ALL of Harmonian soldiers for example and made a wager with good odds and won, pushing our forces over a million soldiers....it would make the game too unfair.

I'm suggesting that certain RESTRICTIONS could be put in place such as a MINIMUM and a MAXIMUM bet. On single battles, 100 to 1,000 soldiers would be more than enough, where as the overall bets could range anywhere from 1,000 to 5,000 soldiers with greater odds.

Speaking of odds, whoever is running the bets would have to do some MAJOR research as to make the odds roughly even because if one person has an advantage and everyone bets on that person (besides making the weaker person feel like crap) it'll result in massive soldier boosts for everyone who was able to make bets on that person, short of the two nations battling since they'd be restricted. I would say that creating the right odds would be your biggest issue.

Finally, you should POSSIBLY make a simplistic website where the organizers of this event could meet and basically run everything including lists of who bet on what because the forums here do not allow for easily updatable tables (or any tables for that matter) and you cannot use ASCII art neither as multiple spaces are ignored.

Hopefully this gives you a few ideas as to difficulty levels of the event as well as tips and hints as to how to get around some of the problems. If you need any further help or suggestions, feel free to ask and I'll do my best to try and help you out (I've done a lot before so I've probably missed out a few of the issues).

[iscalio]

[Horned Loa]

Ah well in that case, it'll be even harder. :lol:

Surely, we'd have far less options but determining odds for nation strength would be EXTREMELLY hard as you'd have to incorporate soldier count, regiments as well as strongest duelists and the number of battles the nation is currently in, if or not that region has forts and is being defended or attacked, if they have strong duelists and the like... As you can see, there are just too many variables to come up with the right odds.

Another problem would be that at that time soldiers that are put up for bets would need to be deducted from the soldiers used in battles which would weaken the nations and make the event rather undesirable (at least I believe it would).

Someone could of course come up with a completely revolutionary idea that would make the odds work a little better and if SARS didn't find placing an extra system in place such as say the 'potch' system *wink wink nudge nudge* this could very well work out not just for the battles and the individual duels but many things to come. Its an interesting concept without a doubt but for it to actually run it would need a few people truly willing to see it through to the end as well as support from the mods and admins and not to mention the desire of the members who would be the ones actually participating.

[Axiose]

Your making it a little more complicated than it needs to be.

For example, Generic-Grasslander comes to Budehuc. He finds out (when announced) that Highland and Nameless Lands are doing battle. Generic-Grasslander bets 200 soldiers that Nameless Lands will win. Typical-Tintonian bets 200 soldiers that Highland will win. Winner takes the pot.

To make things easier and less hastle, just restrict a large amount of soldiers being used. A max bet of 500 soldiers or something small, then just have people bet what they want. They win back the soldiers they bet.

The hard part would be repaying soldiers out of your own supply. It would be better if an admin ran a system like this (with their infinite amount of available soldiers) but I doubt they'd have time.

Included a potch system would also create more, needless work. Soldiers are the equivilant of money on the boards, and bringing in another currency would just create more work for an already busy board.
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[Axiose] [Fliktor]

[Pilika]

For the begining I was thinking something alike Fliktor, of course later it would develop, but for now...
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[fuji]

Why not have somebody with a huge amount of soldiers act as a bookie.

Bet 110 soldiers to win 100. The 10 soldier difference is commission for the person taking the bets.

Therefore, If I were taking bets, you'd need to place a bet of say 1 unit which would mean you're putting up 110 soldiers to win 100. If you bet 3 units, you'd wager 330 soldiers to win 300. In other words, for every 100 you want to win, you put up 110 as your wager. This is a system commonly used in point spreads, and I guess a point spread could be adapted in that Wager Nation-A will win in 2.5 turns. You'd take Nation-A (meaning they'd win in 2 turns) or you'd take Nation-B which means you'll win if Nation-A wins in 3 turns, or Nation-B wins in any amount of turns. The spread is kind of tough in a system like this though, so....

Even better would be if there was a money line, like "[ Nation-A to beat Nation-B +160 ]", which means that Nation-B is favoured and if you were to bet on Nation-B (at -160), you'd need to bet 160 to win 100. However, if you bet on Nation-A (+160), you'd bet 100 to win 160. Obviously it's hard to determine which nation is favoured, and this is where bookies can lose all their money. If they favour the wrong side and all the action is on the dog, they lose all their soldiers. If they're able to balance the action on both sides though, they'll make their cash on the vig. If a dog hits and the action is all on the favourite, the bookie makes a killing.

Just run it like a sports book and everything is rather easy.
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______ "We're still flying"

___ "That's not much"

"It's enough"

[Scarlet Assassin]

I wish this was in effect alrady, I'd bet 2000 soldiers on Grudge, that way if I win, I beat grudge, if I lose, I get the pot. *laugh* win win situation.
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Chief of Beat-em-up Honeys Division, Devoted Protector of Lady Tifa Lockhart

[Pilika]

Soon it will be up.
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[Lunarblade]

Excellent, I'm looking forward to it. Sinocard, if you need some help I'll be glad to do something, but at the same time I suck with numbers so... :|
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[Filipe]

While it would essentially be a good idea there are too many things that would become complicated. I mean who could keep track of that sort of thing on top of everything else that those who watch over the battles and such have to deal with. I mean sure it could be managed by someone outside of it but aside from say a Mercenary people might be a bit biased towards their own nation as a result. People could edge the bets in their favor or something of that nature and that would have to be watched. Thus obviously anyone who had a hand in running the whole thing could never place any bets. I dont know it would probably have to be a Mod not involved with a nation and they already have enough to deal with to my own knowledge.
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