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Russia-Georgia Conflict
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Tullaryx

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 13, 2008 2:58 pm    Post subject: Russia-Georgia Conflict Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

While most of the world is watching and concentrating on the Summer Games in Beijing, something even more important is going on in the Russian-Georgian region for the past week. Depending on who one asks this conflict which has started up between Russia and one of its former republics could be seen as a peacekeeping mission gone bad or a major power-play by the Putin-Medvedev government in Russia in exerting its influence through military means in the region.

Some have already started calling this incident as the first steps to a new Cold War betwee the US and Russia. Russia, especially since Putin took power, has always been against the nations that used to be republics under the USSR in ever joining NATO and/or forming strong alliances with the US and Western Europe. With Georgia being one of the most strident U.S. ally in the region it has also been the target of Moscow's attempts to exert its power in the region. It also doesn't help that Georgia also happens to be part of the gas pipeline in the region which delivers gas to Western Europe.

So, does this conflict truly mark a major change in Russo-American relationship and a start of a major Cold War-style showdown between the two nations, or just a regional incident where a smaller nation over-reached and underestimated a stronger neighbor's reaction in their attempt to take back a Georgian province that's been trying to break away from Georgia.
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Jowy Atreides




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PostPosted: Wed Aug 13, 2008 11:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

I've been tempted to write an in-depth analysis of this short-lived war (which has mostly come and gone), but I'll wait until the dust has settled.

My current understanding of the conflict is that someone -- either Georgian troops or South Ossetian separtists -- attacked the other, which sparked the whole conflict. South Ossetians fled to North Ossetia (a part of Russia), and Russia responded by invading Georgia and South Ossetia. I don't think that Russia wishes to re-annex Georgia, they just wanted to teach Georgia a lesson. What lesson was this? Well, we'll find out once the conflict has come to an end and reporters start investigating.

However, this is just my understanding of a war that isn't even over yet, so my opinion may rapidly change as new details are revealed.

As for Abkhazia and South Ossetia, I think a referendum should be held in each area, monitored by international observers, to find out what the people want. If they want to remain dependent on Georgia, that's what should happen. If they wish to become independent, that's what should happen. If they wish to become a part of Russia, that's what should happen. Such a referendum has already been held in South Ossetia, but it's difficult to verify its legitimacy. Of course, I'd love it if these people just got over their relatively minor differences with the Georgian state and got along, but I don't have any say in that.

Our relationship with Russia is pretty bad already, so I don't think this will make things any better. The current roadblocks in Washington's relationship with Moscow are these: the missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic, Putin's consolidation of power in himself and United Russia, suppression of dissent, Chechnya, and meddling in ex-Soviet countries' affairs. This conflict will become another obstacle in good relations between these two countries.

At most of the political forums I frequent, we experienced a huge spike in the number of Russian users, who mostly parroted what their government was telling them. It didn't really convince any of us, and was mostly just annoying.
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Tullaryx

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PostPosted: Thu Aug 14, 2008 11:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Well, a referendum won't really amount to much unless the UN recognizes those provinces wishing to break off as independent territories. While they may just do so to avoid any future conflicts I think the UN would be opening up a can of worms if they recognize the two breakaway provinces after they re-join Russia.

I do agree that Russia doesn't really want to annex Georgia, but Putin and to a certain extent his handpicked successor in Medvedev do want the ex-Soviet Republics to become depedent on Russia like in the past. This means ex-Soviet Republics wishing to join NATO or an alliance with the US or Western Europe must do so at their own risk. Already, some see Russia's move into Georgia as a way to destabilize the Pro-Western government of Saakashvili. One of the conditions of the cease-fire hashed out by Sarkozy was to have meetings between Medvedev and Saakashvili to find a permanent solution. Medvedev has already said that he will negotiate with the Georgian government but not with Saakashvili. This has become a loophole by which Medvedev can say he can continue to move Russian troops within the provinces in question and even deeper into Georgia as a "peacekeeping" mission. So, Georgia is left with an option of hoping Russia backs away if enough pressure from the West is put on them or remove duly elected Saakashvili and install a president that would be more acceptable to Moscow.

While that doesn't sound like an annex move it does echo the Soviet invasion of Prague in 1968 where Soviet troops went into Czechoslovakia, occupied the capital and helped install a government handpicked by Moscow. Georgia may seem somewhat insignificant to most people who do not live that part of the world, but the incident itself could have far-reaching consequence in re-igniting a Cold War between a resurgent Russia and the U.S. and its Western allies.

I can't really see a shooting war happening between the major powers in the region, but stranger things have happened. With Ukraine already announcing that the Russian Black Sea Fleet may not be able to come back to the naval base in Sebastopol (leased by the Russians from Ukraine since the early 90's) the problems in the region will probably continue to mount before ending.

This conflict will become the problem of the next President of the U.S. and whether its McCain or Obama they will need to make the tough decision of how to continue working with Russia or not work with them. I personally think the next administration should strenghten ties with China who have always been historical rivals to Russia. Plus, with China seeing itself as the true heir to the old Soviet Union as the other superpower other than the US, seeing a resurgent Russia will probably be something they don't welcome with open arms.
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Jowy Atreides




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PostPosted: Thu Aug 14, 2008 11:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

I'm not saying that a referendum would necessarily work -- that's just what I'd like to see. It's the ideal solution, not the pragmatic one. When it comes to these two breakaway republics, there is no pragmatic solution. Every option on the table is either bad, or unrealistic.

We mostly agree on the other things you touched upon. However, China and Russia are extremely close friends nowadays, as they've both shed their communism in favor of free markets. The 2001 Sino-Russian Treaty of Friendship signifies this, as does their membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, an organization that hopes to become "NATO for everybody else." Russia plans on building a pipeline right through China, and they've helped China's outdated army with new equipment. There's other areas that signify their close relationship, but, without going too far, let's just say that they are anything but enemies.
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Tullaryx

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PostPosted: Thu Aug 14, 2008 11:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Oh they won't be enemies. Even during the Cold War the USSR and China were of likemind. But just because the two have started using the free market system it doesn't mean that the two historical rivals won't find ways to one up the other. It doesn't help that China's big coming out party to the world as one of the two major powers is being interrupted by the conflict in Russia and Georgia.

As for the SCO plan I would wait and see if it pans out. China knows that its biggest client in terms of business is the US. I wouldn't see much in Russia updating China's military with new weapon systems and technology. Russia has been trying to sell its weapon systems to anyone who can afford them in large quantities. China just happens to be one flush with cash and needing to upgrade. France, Germany and even Israel has done business with China in regards to upgrading its military. Russia will sell to anyone they think will check the US and its allies. Its the one reason why they made such a big deal of the multibillion dollar arms deal between Russia and Venezuela and to a small extent, one with Iran. Russia wants to get back to its superpower roots. Economically they're still not there despite the billionaires that seem to sprout like daisies in Russia. Militarily they've quite a ways to go to match the US and even China in conventional arms. They still rely on their nuclear assets to put a scare on everyone. going into Georgia is their way of showing the West that if they start trying to make friends with the ex-Soviet Republics then military options are not off the table.

That alone will give even China pause in how they will deal with Russia in the future. I'm sure the two will try to keep their newly forged friendship intact, but even when they were both sharing the same Marxist ideals the two hated each other more than they hated the US, just not out in the open. Just because they do business together doesn't mean they're really friends. The US has many economic and trade agreements with China, but I wouldn't call the two friends. The same between China and Japan and historically those two would rather fight it out.

One thing I'm sure of the happiest people right now, or at the very least quite optimistic about their future, are the heads of the major military corporations in the US and Western Europe. A resurgent Russia willing to use its military means a chance to get back to the heavy military spending of the Cold Wars years. I can see a major turnaround in military spending in the next ten years from the US and its NATO allies.
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Jowy Atreides




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PostPosted: Thu Aug 14, 2008 1:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

I'd like to continue this discussion, but it feels strange with just the two of us.
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Tullaryx

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PostPosted: Thu Aug 14, 2008 5:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Well, I'm sure others will chime in once they've gotten a bit more info on what is going on.

On another note. Looks like What Russia did to Georgia may have had an opposite effect on Russia's former Warsaw Pact neighbors.

U.S. and Poland Agree to Missile Defense Deal
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shikator

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 15, 2008 5:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

We could never know who started this war, if it was georgia then the georgian president is one s****d man why would you against a country that is far more superior than you are,Saakashvili may have though that the west would back them on this war, there seems to be some proffs regarding georgian troops mistreating south ossesstian and pro russian provinces.

I
Quote:

do agree that Russia doesn't really want to annex Georgia, but Putin and to a certain extent his handpicked successor in Medvedev


This shows that putin is still the most powerfull man in russsia. I have just read a news concerning the west changing or backiong from their last demands, this time they would allow russia to have soldiers in south ossesttia and abhkzian as peacekeepers, i personally see this as a russian win. This war has stabilized georgia alot, and i hope it stops other countries in eastern europe would have to respect russian demands.

I dont think china sees russia as a rival, they are close friends and the only two countries that i seem to think that can go against U.S demands.
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 15, 2008 6:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

shikator wrote:
I have just read a news concerning the west changing or backiong from their last demands, this time they would allow russia to have soldiers in south ossesttia and abhkzian as peacekeepers, i personally see this as a russian win.


Well, Russia already had peacekeepers in South Ossetia, but if they manage to kick Georgian troops out of SO permanently that would definitely constitute a victory for the Russians.

shikator wrote:
I dont think china sees russia as a rival, they are close friends and the only two countries that i seem to think that can go against U.S demands.


There's also India, you know.
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 15, 2008 9:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Quote:

There's also India, you know.


wohh..... I missed out on india....... cant miss out iran as well.

Quote:
A top Russian general said Friday that Poland's agreement to accept a U.S. missile interceptor base exposes the ex-communist nation to attack, possibly by nuclear weapons, the Interfax news agency reported.

The statement by Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn is the strongest threat that Russia has issued against the plans to put missile defense elements in former Soviet satellite nations.


terrible timing for this deal, poland know how russia would react to it.

If ever russia attacks poland then NATO realy has to do do something, lets just hope this sudden russian actions cools down.
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Jowy Atreides




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PostPosted: Fri Aug 15, 2008 9:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Wait, what did you mean by "go against US demands"? Does that mean that the country can become a superpower, or that they don't kowtow to Washington's demands? If you mean the former, then Iran doesn't qualify because of its relatively small population, but if you meant the latter then Iran definitely qualifies. Relations between America and India are very warm nowadays, although India sided with the Soviet Union during the Cold War.
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 15, 2008 3:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

You have to feel sorry for Goegria for being located where it is. I bet the place is just bad from a Fung Shui perspective as well! They'd have greater peace if they were like Bhutan -- without any political interests involving natural resources whatsoever. However, located between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea, they're bound to be under the scruinty of large nations and thus they have to be extremely careful with how they play the cards.

Obviously, the current stance of being blatantly on the side of the "west" while rejecting Russia cost a heavy toll on Georgia. Of course, Russia "ought" to respect the sovereignty of Georgia, but it has plenty of justification for aiding South Ossetia, just like how the USA supported the sovereignty of Kosovo (much to Moscow's displeasure).

Bush's comment that this type of bullying of smaller nations by a larger military power can not stand in the 21st century falls on deaf ears, as the USA has already waged an unpopular war in Iraq, where they forcibly deposed the ruling power and executed its head of state (even if he was a bad person, my opinion is that killing a head of state is barbaric).
Russia would obviously laugh at these accusations, when the USA has already paved the way for large nations to do what has just happened in Georgia.

Georgia played their cards wrong as well. The increasingly nationalistic atmosphere created by Saakashvili probably added further fuel to the ethnic divide within their small country. The nationalism, of course, was fuled by rampant corruption brought on by close to a decade of Shevardnadze rule. Shevardnadze was very popular outside Georgia (much like how Gorvachev was popular everywhere outside Russia), which probably made the outside world complacent about the inner turmoil of Georgia. Inner turmoil has a tendncy of leading to nationalism, because when you're running a poor country, it's far easier to blame problems on other countries rather than on yourself.

The only way Georgia could survive comfortably is by taking the middle path-- appeasing both the "western" (NATO) powers while appeasing Russia at the same time. It's a tough balancing act, but other nations have shown skill in juggling the "powers" to maintain their safety. If Georgie decides to elect Nino Burjanadze as their president, maybe this is possible because she has a more balanced perspective as opposed to Saakashvili. However, given the fact that she is distancing herself from the political mainstream might make that a difficult alternative.

The situation in Georgia can escalate into something larger. You never know. Russia's show of muscle made the US compromise on conditions Poland has requested for hosting their missile-defense system. This has in turn sparked a comment that Russia will consider this as a threat from Poland. If anything develops between Russia and Poland, that would definitely be a pretext for something larger and disasterous.
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 15, 2008 4:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Russia has already hinted that they may nuke Poland, although it's obviously a bluff. But, even though it's a fake threat, it shows that Russia sees this as an encroachment on their turf.

I don't think there's a "middle of the road" approach when it comes to these ex-Soviet republics. If you aren't 100% behind Russia, you're a traitor. The closest thing to a "middle" would be to re-align yourself slightly to the West, while still being 90% behind Russia. As for corruption, well, that's something endemic to developing countries, and I don't think electing someone new will fix things, unless they plan to set their country on the right path to becoming a developed country, a la the Four Asian Tigers. Because of Georgia's bad location, I doubt it'll be a developed country anytime soon. Even the big country invading them, Russia, doesn't qualify as a developed country.

McCain also issued a statement, which mostly echoed Bush's -- in these modern times, you can't invade a sovereign nation, unless you're the United States, which you aren't, so nanny nanny boo boo!
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 17, 2008 12:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

I did originally support Russia's causus belli, but they've gone WAY too far with this, rejecting even their own terms for a ceasefire.

Just to play devil's advocate, Georgia was a democratically elected government. as opposed to the Iraqi dictatorship.

Quote:
Russia has already hinted that they may nuke Poland, although it's obviously a bluff.

*spits out coffee*

Even hinting at that would cause the whole damn world to shun them, are you sure about that? Source?

Also,

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2341/2748612850_1d40f3352d.jpg?v=0
http://fumpr.com/images/ja9649gwx25j20sykl0q.png
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Jowy Atreides




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PostPosted: Sun Aug 17, 2008 1:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Lots of sources, which I won't bother posting, but here's a few:

http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,24193291-401,00.html
http://www.canada.com/montrealgazette/story.html?id=ed46fc39-3855-47bf- b353-40e8d12e3767
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=SimpleSite/JPArticle/Sh owFull&cid=1218710373444

All 3 articles specifically use the word "nuclear." Russia officials themselves have also used the word multiple times.
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