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Gil-galad

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PostPosted: Tue May 01, 2007 8:40 pm    Post subject: Could This Year Be... Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Could this year be the highest grossing box office year of all time? Look at all the big blockbuster movies coming out this year! First early in the year there were unexpectedly large returns made for 300. Coming up this weekend Spider Man 3 is coming out, which is the highest grossing super hero movie series. Then a few weeks later you'll have Pirates if the Caribbean 3, and if I remember correctly Pirates of the Caribbean 2 was one of the highest grossing sequels of all time. Then in the summer we see the release of Harry Potter 5, which is easily one of the biggest children's franchises of all time. Also over the summer we see the release of Shrek 3, which should continue to rake in big bucks. And it doesn't stop there, also in the animation department we see Pixar's new movie Ratatouille, and Pixar movies are always huge money generators.

I honestly can't remember a year in recent history where there are so many very popular series movies getting released. Do you all think that this year could easily be the highest grossing year of all time? How many of these movies do you plan to see? How many of these movies do you think are worth seeing?
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PostPosted: Tue May 01, 2007 8:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

There are always big hits coming out at this time of the year and throughout the summer. I dont think one can judge a year's box office intake by just judging the summer movies that are coming out. We will have to see what movies continue to come out throughout the year.
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Gil-galad

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PostPosted: Tue May 01, 2007 8:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Philosopherking wrote:
There are always big hits coming out at this time of the year and throughout the summer. I dont think one can judge a year's box office intake by just judging the summer movies that are coming out. We will have to see what movies continue to come out throughout the year.


That's what I've done. I've taken a look at all the of the movies to be released this year-- and as I said in my post, there's far more big money makers than I have ever seen before. You don't need to wait to see what movies will be released this year, as all of the big studio movies that do all the money making have already been announced.

If there's one thing that is predictable about the US economy, it is the way consumers flock to these blockbuster hit movies.
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PostPosted: Tue May 01, 2007 9:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Philosopherking wrote:
There are always big hits coming out at this time of the year and throughout the summer. I dont think one can judge a year's box office intake by just judging the summer movies that are coming out. We will have to see what movies continue to come out throughout the year.


While it's true that other movies get released throughout the year, study has shown that close to 40-45 percent of all box-office receipts came from films released between the first week of May until the last week of August. This time frame constitutes the so-called summer blockbuster season.

Movies released in this stretch of time usually would have an average box-office take throughout its theater run of around 60-70 million dollars domestically. Now, that doesn't seem like blockbuster numbers but think about it. There's bound to be close to 2-3 movies in this summer season to make around 250-300+ million dollars domestically. In the 150-250+ million dollars range there'll be around 10-12 with the rest making 150 and less. Close to 50 to 60 movies will come out in this summer season and for the total box-office take for these movies to be averaged out to 60-70 million is quite a lot when compared to the rest of the year.

So, I will say that the success of the blockbuster titles coming out this Friday until the end of August will determine just how well the year's box-office receipts will be and whether it'll break the current record.
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PostPosted: Tue May 01, 2007 9:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

So far this year we've seen a selection of movies that have made big bucks. Some of which surprised me.

300 has grossed 206 Million and its still rising, not meteorically, but its going up. I expected it to be a success, but raking in over 200 Million is astounding. I'm glad its successful, maybe this will really give companies incentive to make other Graphic Novels into movies. And not just Frank Miller ones.

Ghost Rider rather surprised me. I didn't expect it to do as well as it did, and some consider it to be a flop. But when you're being compared to the Spider-Man and X-Men franchises, most movies pale in income. Ghost Rider isn't exactly the most kid friendly super hero like Spidey or Wolverine is. I doubt we'll see kids dressed with flaming skulls this October. But nonetheless it was a success. 115 Million Strong.

Wild Hogs is another major WTF in my eyes. It looked like such a bomb, but its at 158 Million and still growing. More people saw Wild Hogs over the past weekend than 300 and Grindhouse. I haven't seen it but one friend said it was actually funny. I dunno, it looked really bad to me. Huge surprise.

Blades of Glory was the other movie I have seen thats broke the 100 Million mark this year (300 being the other). It was a typical Will Ferrell movie but with a MUCH better supporting cast than his last outing with Talledega Nights. This movie is actually worth seeing. Anyhow, Will Farrell proved again that his movies can be watched, no matter what its about. He made Ice Skating watchable.

Some movies that expected to do well though have dropped. Like the horrorfest of Grindhouse. Many thought that was going to do well, but it flopped. I hate seing Quentin Tarantino do badly, but it was a flop. I never saw it, but everyone I know who did said it was crap. TMNT was supposed to bring in more than it has as well. Another movie I have no knowedge about other than its a 3D version of the show I watched as a kid. La-de da.

There's some highly anticipated movies coming out, as Gil said. I inted on seeing Spider Man 3 this friday, so chalk 7.50 up for me and 7.50 for my girlfriend. I think the movie is going to do great. Spider Man 2 I think is in the Top 10 highest grossing movies of all time. So, 3 has quite a bar set.

I never saw Pirates of the Carribean 2, so I won't be seing 3 unless I get to watch the second beforehand. But if I do manage to see it, I'll probably catch the third. I loved the first one, so there's no reason to not like the sequels.

Harry Potter is guaranteed to be a smash. Even if they mutilate it from the book versions. Kids love to watch Harry, Ron and Hermoine. I'll be amongst the giddy children, but I won't be garnishing a thunderbolt sticker on my head and black rimmed spectacles (unless my new pair of glasses I'm getting next month are black rimmed). I love the magic and the special effects that the movies have. Also, I'm a fan of the books. I'm a Harry Potter fan.

Shrek 3 is another movie I'm definitely seeing. I liked one a lot but never saw 2 in the theatre. I watched it later on DVD. It wasn't as good as the first was, but after seeing the previews for Shrek the Third last time I was in the theatre, I'm more than definitely seeing this installment. It looks really funny and good, even if its meant for 8 year olds. Thats the beauty of Shrek, its fun for all ages.

Ratatouille looks funny, but thats not a movie I'll be seeing in theatres. I love kids movies, I do, but unless its something I know a lot about (Shrek, Harry Potter) I'm not going to see it. I never saw Cars, Meet The Robinsons or any of the other new age 3D movies that are churned out seemingly every two or three months now. It was innovative back when Toy Story first did it, but I want good old fashioned cartoon movies a la Lion King (and that even had its share of computerized effects).

One movie that Gil left out thats anticipated amongst many is Transformers. Personally I'm not going to see it, but all my friends are. They're totally stoked to see their beloved kid's cartoon come to life on the big scren. I'm a fan of the old show, and Optimus Prime is the shiznit, but I'll reserve my judgement for the DVD. Unless all my friends tell me its like the second coming of Christ, which they do at times.

Other movies I'm interested in seeeing, Live Fee or Die Hard, The Bourne Ultimatum and Evan Almighty. Ultimatum should break the 150 Million mark for sure, especially with the following Supremacy and Identity had. Die Hard won't do the best, but if Wild Hogs and Blades can break 100M, so can that.

I don't know how this year will compare to other big movie years, but its a dramatic improvement to the past few years where only 1 or 2 movies were good per year.
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PostPosted: Tue May 01, 2007 9:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Spider-Man 3, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End and Harry Potter and The Order of the Phoenix are pretty much a lock to make around 250 million each if not 300 million each before they leave the theaters. Transformers can easily join that trifecta if the movie has good word of mouth after the first weekend.

The Bourne Ultimatum should easily get 100-150 million domestically if using the first two movies in the series is a way to predict its box-office. I think the one movie which could be a smash or a huge bust will be Evan Almighty. The first one was funny, but I didn't think it was that hilarious. From what I could read in the trades this movie has become the most expensive comedy ever made with a budget that has ballooned beyond the 200, and some have said 250, million dollar mark. This movie will need to make 275-300 million worldwide just break even.
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PostPosted: Tue May 01, 2007 9:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

around christmas time though there is sometimes good releases out that will help the box office. For example the lord of the rings movies or earlier harry potter movies in recent years. You never know what could come out that will hit box office charts.

Im just saying the market is fickle and some movies you dont expect to be hits are and other movies that get a lot of hype and are expected to be hits are flops.
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Gil-galad

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PostPosted: Tue May 01, 2007 9:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

My point was, that based on the movies that we already know are going to be released, this year seems like a prime year to break the record. Any surprise hits at the box office will only add to that chance.

I think you can add Shrek 3 to the group of movies grossing over 250 million, Tull. With four or five movies that could easily gross 300 million this year, I really think records are going to be broken.

As for Evan almighty-- I'm predicting a flop here. Bruce Almighty was pretty funny, but it doesn't have anywhere to really go to for a sequel, they already exhausted all the really funny options for that plot.
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PostPosted: Tue May 01, 2007 10:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Philosopherking wrote:
around christmas time though there is sometimes good releases out that will help the box office. For example the lord of the rings movies or earlier harry potter movies in recent years. You never know what could come out that will hit box office charts.

Im just saying the market is fickle and some movies you dont expect to be hits are and other movies that get a lot of hype and are expected to be hits are flops.


Yes, you are correct but the topic was whether this summer blockbuster crop of films will push the overall yearly box-office take to new record levels. As profitable some of the Holiday Season releases have been, it's usually not the norm.

There's a reason why movie studios release blockbuster (or potential ones) movies in the summer. There's more kids and more people to watch them during the weekday. There's more down time for people to watch movies. It doesn't have to be the weekend. During the Holiday season it's really around the Xmas break which brings in big money for movies that are quite popular at that moment. That's not a lot of days.

In the summer time, studios will have close to 60-90 days where a big movie can bring in 1-3 million per day. Those are huge numbers. Again, studies by the film industry has shown with definitive proof that the majority of the blockbusters of any given year occur during the summertime.
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PostPosted: Tue May 01, 2007 10:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

The topic is about the year as a whole

"Could this year be the highest grossing box office year of all time?"

while the discussion so far is mainly about the summer blockbusters that are coming the topic is about the entire year itself. While I admit you are right that the summer block buster movies bring in the most to the box office we can not forget about the few stragglers outside of that time period, because some can make a difference on breaking the record or not.
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PostPosted: Tue May 01, 2007 10:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

It's just common sense to release the more popular/bigger hyped movies during the summer. School out or just getting out, and kids have the whole day free. So not only are kids more likely to go to the threatre but parents are likely to go with them. So movies released during the summer are more likely to gross more income.

And I think Gil's original point is that there's a major line up of movies coming out, that have a potential to gross more income this year than any other year. Not that movies just do well in the summer time. And to answer that, yes, there is. I plan to go see the ones you listed as they come out. So this will be at least be an eventual movie year for me.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2008 5:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

It looks like 2007 was a record-breaking year in terms of box-office revenues for all films released in 2007. Even with the so-so blockbusters which came out this summer they still made quite a bit of bank despite the lackluster reviews. Even the slow film seasons of spring and fall had its share of box-office hits. But the very profitable holiday season with I Am Legend, National treasure 2: Book of Secrets and Alvin and the Chipmunks being major box-office hits to lead the way finally pushed 2007 ahead of 2006 as the biggest grossing year for the film industry.

Will 2008 surpass 2007 in terms of box-office? There's a good chance it will with some of the bigger blockbusters really turning out to make summer 2008 a major season. May alone has three heavy-hitters in the form of Iron-Man, The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian and, one of the most-awaited sequels since the Star Wars prequels, Indiana Jones and The Kingdom of the Crystal Skull.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2008 2:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

I assume every year will replace the previous year in terms of earnings...
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Gil-galad

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PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2008 6:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

There had been people who made predictions that theater profits would decrease sharply due to record DVD sales, and increasing theater costs-- but hey they said the same thing when VHS was new didn't they? Seems people will always be willing to shell out a little bit of cash to watch a movie in a dark clammy room with sticky floor and annoying kids abound. And for good reason, too. ;)
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2008 6:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Dark clammy floors? Gil been visiting those quarter-booths again?
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