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Peace in Toran for a long time?
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Beethoven4567

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2005 12:45 pm    Post subject: Peace in Toran for a long time? Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

After the Gate Rune Wars, Toran ushered in a new era of peace and stability. Toran would probably never face any threats from Dunan since Harmonia is directly north of Dunan. But will Toran be satisfied in living in peace? What if Toran suddenly revived its imperial-era militarism? Does Dunan face any threats from the Toran Republic.

The thought of being invaded by Harmonia, Toran,and Tinto might frighten Dunan. Will Dunan and Toran be good neighbours forever or not?
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2005 1:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

I'm guessing that this series of political questions concerning the antions of the SUikoden world is some sort of attempt to get insight into the plots of future games. Not a bad idea, but probably not very accurate.

Anyway,

The chances of Dunan seeing Toran or Tinto as a possible threat seems rather small to me. They were on friendly terms with both nations, last we heard. Until we find out who replaces each ruler we really can't make any guesses at long term changes, but during the reigns of Lepant and Teresa, it's safe to assume that there will be no issues between Toran and Dunan.

As I've stated before (in a couple of threads of this nature) Harmonia is not in a position to be attacking anyone right now. After two defeats at the hands of less powerful nations, they would never gain the backing to support another military strike. It is still my opinion that no nation on the continent is ready to attack any other nation right now (except possibly the nameless lands or the island nations)
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2005 3:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

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After the Gate Rune Wars, Toran ushered in a new era of peace and stability.


Toran had a war directly after the Gate Rune Wars. It was with the City-States while they were trying to get the regions of Lorimar back from them.

Also, Toran was involved in the Dunan Unification Wars. Not as a whole continent.

Whilst we've only seen the North and West of Toran, there is always the chance of attack from the south.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2005 4:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

I certainly wouldn't blow off an attack from the tinto republic either. It seems that they have an aggresive past, referencing suikoden II, and they were the last City State to withdraw from the Lorimar region.

Even thought Dunan and Toran are probably on very good terms, all it takes is one little incident and a war can start. Luca blight, and Luc pretty much single handedly started their respective wars and i would not be surprised if something of that nature happened again.

Also Just as Fliktor said, we can not be sure of any other nations to the south or the east showing agression. War is a central component of all the nations in suikoden and i expect that to continue. You could even see a conquest of sort trying to obtain new land to the south by Toran.

What i do doubt seriously is any sort of imperial revival by the Scarlet moon empire. The gate rune war was fought because of a corrupt emperor and i do not see the people of the toran republic allowing any emperor return to power.

There probably will not be a war against Dunan any time soon, but peace for the toran republic will not be everlasting. Some issue will arise and a corrupt faction will emerge to thrust toran into war.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 16, 2005 7:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Beethoven4567, you're asking things that we cannot answer. But will Toran be satisfied in living in peace? We don't know. What if Toran suddenly revived its imperial-era militarism? We don't know. Will Dunan and Toran be good neighbours forever or not? We don't know.

But I'll try to answer using the facts that we've known. Will Toran be satisfied in living in peace? That depends on what era we're talking about. If still under President Lepant's rule, then I'd say yes, because they had been in war for quite a long time in the past. It would be more logical to say that the people were simply tired of having war. Hence, they would be satisfied with peace. But if you're talking about far future, then anything can happen.

What if Toran suddenly focused on their military? Well maybe they'd attack Dunan. But I don't see this happening because Toran did help Dunan to fight against Luca Blight/Highland during the Dunan Unification War. There seem to be no reason for Toran to want to invade Dunan after that. But again, if you're talking about far future, we simply don't know what could happen.

Will Toran and Dunan be good neighbors forever or not? Yes and No. Yes if things stayed the same, No if one started to bother the other. It's just like you and your own neighbor next door. You can't really tell whether you'd be good neighbors to each other forever or not, because frankly speaking, you don't know what's going to happen in the future.

Don't want to sound harsh, but I think you need to put more thought into your questions rather than just asking of what could happen out of nowhere. None of us knew the answer, and I think even Konami don't know it yet.

Barbarosa Rugner wrote:
Even thought Dunan and Toran are probably on very good terms, all it takes is one little incident and a war can start. Luca blight, and Luc pretty much single handedly started their respective wars and i would not be surprised if something of that nature happened again.

I think the difference between Luca/Luc's case and Dunan-Toran's case is that Luca's case used the tension between Jowston and Highland, so it wouldn't be too hard to start a war. Luc's case is the same as Luca's, he used the tension between Grasslands and Zexen to cause conflict. On the other hand, as you said, Toran and Dunan seem to be on very good terms. If a little incident were to use to start conflict, I think both nations would be suspicious (because none felt the need to start a war with the other) and investigation might be done to reveal the real culprit.

An analogy is between you and your classmates. It's easy to make you fight a classmate that you hate if I said that he spread awful gossip about you. But if I tell you that your good friend spread awful gossip about you, you'd be more inclined to ask confirmation first from your good friend rather than instantly jumping to conclusion that he did it.
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 17, 2005 7:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Honestly, I don't see any problems with Toran and Dunan in the near future for Suikoden, as they both have pretty level-headed leaders...although...what about Kooluk in the south? If they're still around, they might try something.
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 18, 2005 2:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Fliktor wrote:
Quote:
After the Gate Rune Wars, Toran ushered in a new era of peace and stability.


Toran had a war directly after the Gate Rune Wars. It was with the City-States while they were trying to get the regions of Lorimar back from them.

Also, Toran was involved in the Dunan Unification Wars. Not as a whole continent.

Whilst we've only seen the North and West of Toran, there is always the chance of attack from the south.



Actulary When the armies of South Window and Tinto invaded the Senan Area (due to matthew letter about Imperial Duplicity) and occupied it. Cleo and most of the army Repelled the invaders. This is considered apart of the gate rune wars. and was only one battle. not a seperate war in itself.
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Lunarblade

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 18, 2005 3:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Eggith Cyrene wrote:
Fliktor wrote:
Quote:
After the Gate Rune Wars, Toran ushered in a new era of peace and stability.


Toran had a war directly after the Gate Rune Wars. It was with the City-States while they were trying to get the regions of Lorimar back from them.

Also, Toran was involved in the Dunan Unification Wars. Not as a whole continent.

Whilst we've only seen the North and West of Toran, there is always the chance of attack from the south.



Actulary When the armies of South Window and Tinto invaded the Senan Area (due to matthew letter about Imperial Duplicity) and occupied it. Cleo and most of the army Repelled the invaders. This is considered apart of the gate rune wars. and was only one battle. not a seperate war in itself.


Wait...is this before the attack on Gregminster? Because, honestly, if it's after the Gate Rune Wars it should really be considered a seperate conflict. Plus, I remember when the characters in Suikoden II spoke about it they spoke of it more as a war...then again I haven't played Suikoden or Suikoden II in a few years so forgive me if I'm wrong...
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Aurelien

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 18, 2005 3:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Nah, Eggith was wrong. He was talking about something else. The "war" between Jowston and Toran happened after the Gate Rune War. From Suikox's timeline

Quote:
IS - 458: Toran/Jowstone War
The Toran Republic started a campaign to regain the Senan Region, which had been occupied by the armies of Tinto and South Window for two years. Commander-in-Chief Kwanda Rossman along with Kasim Hazil, Sonya Shulen, and Valeria, participated in this campaign. Eventually, South Window's forces withdraw by the order of Granmeyer, and without their support, Tinto soon withdrew as well. This caused friction between Tinto and South Window. Seeing this, Highland increased military activity along Jowstone's border. Genkaku died of old age


So it was clear that the Senan region was occupied for 2 years, and the finish was after Gate Rune War.
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Beethoven4567

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 20, 2005 9:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Well since Tinto seceeded from Dunan there's gonna be no way they can invade Toran since their armies would have to pass through Dunan in order to get to Toran. Still, an invasion from a hostile nation south of Toran can be easily repelled by the Toran army since the capital, Gregminster, is located far north. In this case, if there ever were any invasion from the south, reserves deep inside Toran can be mobilized to crush the aggressors before they can even reach Lake Toran.
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 20, 2005 3:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Quote:
Well since Tinto seceeded from Dunan there's gonna be no way they can invade Toran since their armies would have to pass through Dunan in order to get to Toran. Still, an invasion from a hostile nation south of Toran can be easily repelled by the Toran army since the capital, Gregminster, is located far north. In this case, if there ever were any invasion from the south, reserves deep inside Toran can be mobilized to crush the aggressors before they can even reach Lake Toran.


If you knew all of that, then why did you post up this thread?
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 21, 2005 1:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Well, even if that is the case regarding an invasion of the Toran Republic it still doesn't address the point of would Toran get invaded in the first place?

From what we've seen, as long as Lepant is President, war is unlikely. He's been well able to deal with enemies of the Scarlet Moon Empire and with the large space between them and the Nation of Dunan, a war between those two nations seem unlikely.

Tinto/Toran relations are practically non-existance and there'd be no reason for a war. What's there for those two to fight about these days?

Zexen and the Grasslands? Obviously not. Harmonia? Unlikely, if they wanted "revenge" for the fall of Rapunda, they had two hundred years to go for it.

So, who's left? The Island Nations? A smattering of small naval forces? Unless the Republic was to simply 'go imperial' for some reason, then no. And no-one seems to be in contact with Falena, so I doubt something will spark up between them either.

So, really, unless there's a dramatic change in leadership resulting in some form of totalitarim government, it's hard to see Toran go to war or get invaded for a long time.
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 21, 2005 9:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

I don't think Jowston has much to fear from Toran so long as Lepant is in power. I think Lepant even said something in Suikoden II about them being old enemies but wanting to bury the hatchet. I don't think Toran is really interested in taking over Jowston at the moment - they may have had a war past Suikoden I (in fact, one of the generals endings - Kasim, I think? - says as much), but past Suikoden II I think that they are allies through and through.

Tinto might want to go to war with Toran but I doubt that they would. For one thing, they have their plate filled with Zexen and Grassland troubles; for another, if they withdrew from the Jowston Alliance, that would indicate (to me, anyway) that they weren't happy with Jowston. If Tinto and Jowston are on unfriendly terms, I don't see Jowston allowing Tinto to march across their lands, especially to attack Jowston's ally.

Actually, did we ever recieve any information on why Tinto dropped out of the Jowston Alliance and declared their independence? It seems almost suicidal to do so, IMO, since they are so small and between Jowston, Zexen, and the Grasslands, it seems like there would be a lot of aggression between them that would eventually weaken and take out Tinto. The Grasslands and Jowston seem much bigger than Tinto, and Zexen is at the very least likely the same size; it seems surprising to me that Tinto would manage to hold out very long at all with such powerful competition.

John Layfield wrote:
So, who's left? The Island Nations? A smattering of small naval forces? Unless the Republic was to simply 'go imperial' for some reason, then no. And no-one seems to be in contact with Falena, so I doubt something will spark up between them either.


Well, as of around Suikoden I, we know Falena and the Island Nations had at least a friendly slave trade going on, so at least one of the southern nations is in contact with Falena. I do get the sense that because it is so far South and on another landmass and all, that the nations on the continent we've seen so far don't have a lot to do with it, except the nation(s) in the deepest southern part of the contintent - which so far has been revealed to be the Island Nations.

I don't think that the Island Nations is just a smattering of small naval forces, though. Considering that they've been said to have more of a merchant-ish backround, I wouldn't be surprised if they were vastly rich and have the armada to back it up. However, I can't imagine they'd want to be involved in too many conflicts, though, because war would hurt a merchant's chance for business with the enemy/enemies and the enemy/enemies alliances. I could only see them going to war for profit reasons; if they need more natural resources/land, etc. Though now that I think about it, hasn't war always been good for business, historically?
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 21, 2005 11:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

[quote=Sophita]Though now that I think about it, hasn't war always been good for business, historically?[/quote]

Depends on which side you're on. Germany's economy died after World War I, and also World War II. The United States was okay because it wasn't the land that was being fought on, but Europe was bombed to shreds and the repairs required to restore the infrastructure was phenomenally expensive.

Lately, war's not been a very good investment because it makes people nervous and uncertain. In the modern era, people feel that war is a waste of money. You don't have to look that far in the current events news to see examples of how war hasn't been promoting business.
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Beethoven4567

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 22, 2005 1:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

All it takes is an Alexander-the-Great type of leader in Toran that could lead to a massive invasion of Dunan from the Toran army, provided that the leader is charismatic and all races in Toran, including the elves and the kobolds, fully supports the leader's decisions. With the various strengths and abilities of all races in Toran combined, Toran could muster a large and powerful army with a variety of units to succesfully invade Dunan,since 60% of the Dunan army should be in Higheast to defend it from Harmonia.

History has proven that peace can not last long since war provides progress and change in the world. Dunan will be the most vulnerable, as she has to share land borders with 3 nations. But the question is,who will be the aggressor-Dunan or Toran?
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