80th Academy Awards

[Tony Stark]

The nominations were just posted yesterday, and I wondered who you guys thought would win.

I've seen a lot of the academy movies, but I have missed out on some major ones, like No Country for Old Men and Atonement. I have seen most of the other ones.

The Academy Awards also might not happen this year, due to the strike. It might end up being just like the Golden Globes, but I would be very disappointed if that happened.

I think that No Country For Old Men will win both the Best Picture and Best Director Oscars, while Daniel Day Lewis will pick up the Best Actor and Julie Christie will win the Best Actress. Best supporting actor to Javier Bardem and Actress to Cate Blanchett.

I will post my actual opinions later, but I want to see what you guys think.
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[Tullaryx]

I'll make it easy for those willing to check out the nominations and just highlight who they think will win and who actually deserves to win.

BEST PICTURE
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

Who Will Win: No Country for Old Men
Who Deserves to Win: No Country for Old Men
Dark Horse Pick: Juno

I think even with the love Juno has been getting it will be a major upset if they beat out the likes of No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood for Best Picture. The race really comes down between the Coen Brother's film and Paul T. Anderson's. I pick No Country for Old Men to win just ahead of Anderson's film.

BEST ACTOR
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises

Who Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Who Deserves to Win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Dark Horse Pick: Viggo Mortensen

Daniel Day-Lewis is not just the concensus pick as having done the best work by an actor all of 2007, but his work in There Will Be Blood tops most of the winners of Best Actor of the past couple years. Viggo Mortensen would be a big surprise winner, but one whose performance in Eastern Promises would probably won him the award in any other year.

BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie, Away From Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Laura Linney, The Savages
Ellen Page, Juno

Who Will Win: Marion Cotillard
Who Deserves to Win: Julie Christie
Dark Horse Pick: Ellen Page

This one is pretty much down to either French actress Marion Cotillard who did a great job portraying French singer Edith Piaf in La Vie en Rose or veteran actress Julie Christie in Away From Her. I think Christie did a more nuanced job in her film which seemed to require more skill than portraying a historical figure. Page will be the dark horse pick for her work in Juno and I wouldn't be surprised if she wins.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton

Who Will Win: Javier Bardem
Who Deserves to Win: Javier Bardem
Dark Horse Pick: Casey Affleck

Like the Best Actor category this one is pretty much one of the sure-things in this year's Oscars. Bardem's performance as the otherwordly Anton Chigurh just hits every note. He was scary, terrifying, mysterious and, when it called for it, quite funny in a morbid sort of way. Like the movie or not it everyone was affected by Bardem's performance. Affleck's work as Robert Ford was very good. He made such a sleaze and stalker character very sympathetic.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Ruby Dee, American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton

Who Will Win: Cate Blanchett
Who Deserves to Win: Amy Ryan
Dark Horse Pick: Ruby Dee

Blanchett is turning out to be this generation's Meryl Streep who was almost a perennial nominee in the acting categories. While her performance as one of the many facets of Bob Dylan in I'm Not There was the best thing about that film I think Amy Ryan as the drug-addicted mother who takes advantage of the outpouring of support from the public really made white-trash mothers look even worse than usual. Ruby Dee has a dark horse chance of winning since she's pretty much the "let's nominate her before she dies" pick.

BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Jason Reitman, Juno
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Who Will Win: Joel and Ethan Coen
Who Deserves to Win: Joel and Ethan Coen
Dark Horse Pick: Julian Schnabel

The Coen Brothers did the best directing work this year with No Country for Old Men. Anyone who has seen the film can't deny that fact. Anderson is deserving to win as well, but even as epic and great a film There Will Be Blood has turned out to be it is still quite a flawed film. Julian Schnabel is a dark horse pick and only because of the nature of the film he made. His nomination should've gone to David Cronenberg.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Brad Bird, Ratatouille
Diablo Cody, Juno
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Tamara Jenkins, The Savages
Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl

Who Will Win: Diablo Cody
Who Deserves to Win: Diablo Cody
Dark horse Pick: BradBird

Of all the films made from original screenplays it is Diablo Cody's screenplay for Juno which stands out the most. The dialogue was snappy and hip but without becoming to annoying about how good it is. Brad Bird's story for Ratatouille has a chance to win, but most likely that film will win the Best Animated Feature and leave it at that.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Christopher Hampton, Atonement
Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Sarah Polley, Away From Her

Who Will Win: Joel and Ethan Coen
Who Deserves to Win: Joel and Ethan Coen
Dark Horse Pick: Sarah Polley

The Coen Brothers deserves to win this award for taking a McCarthy novel and actually succeeding in making it translate well into film. Cormac McCarthy's writing style is quite unique and very Faulkneresque. To say his novels are a very hard read is an understatement. They should just hand the award over to the Bros right now. Sarah Polley's adaptation of Away From Her is one that's been getting quite a bit of buzz and deservingly so. She's turning out to be not just a fine actress but screenwriter and director as well.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Persepolis
Ratatouille
Surf's Up

Who Will Win: Ratatouille
Who Deserves to Win: Persepolis
Dark horse Pick: Surf's Up

Ratatouille will win especially after the critical-acclaim the film got with comparison to Beauty and the Beast as an animated feature that stood a good chance to be nominated for Best Picture. Persepolis should've been nominated for Best Foreign Film instead it will have a good chance to win and take the award from The Rat. Surf's Up is the biggest dark horse upset if it wins. Dude, it got surfing penguins.

BEST ART DIRECTION
American Gangster
Atonement
The Golden Compass
Sweeney Todd
There Will Be Blood

Who Will Win: Sweeney Todd
Who Deserves to Win: There Will Be Blood
Dark horse Pick: Atonement

Sweeney Todd is the prettiest looking of the bunch and for that it will most likely win. But I rather think There Will Be Blood really had the better art direction and did it without being too garish the way Sweeney Todd was. Atonement has an outside chance for really pulling off the usual British, period piece they were going for with that film.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Assassination of Jesse James…
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

Who Will Win: There Will Be Blood
Who Deserves to Win: No Country for Old Men
Dark Horse Pick: Atonement

There Will Be Blood brought hellfire, or the look and feel of it, on the screen and I think it deserves to win it, but my choice as to who truly deserves the win is one Roger Deakins. His camera work on No Country for Old Men just adds another layer to the story the Coen Brothers were telling. Deakins got to John Ford-level in his shots of the Texan plains.

BEST DOCUMENTARY
No End in Sight
Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience
Sicko
Taxi to the Dark Side
War/Dance

Who Will Win: No End In Sight
Who Deserves to Win: No End in Sight
Dark Horse Pick: Taxi to the Dark Side

I know that people will be tempted to vote for Michael Moore's documentary on the healthcare system of the US, but the Iraq War documentary in No End In Sight was just hands down the best docu-film of the year. One of the best films of the year period.

BEST EDITING
The Bourne Ultimatum
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

Who Will Win: No Country for Old Men[/i][/b]
Who Deserves to Win: No Country for Old Men
Dark Horse Pick: The Bourne Ultimatum

While the editing wasn't flashy in No Country for Old Men it was still the best editing work last year. While it wasn't flashy it moved the story along and not one shot or sequence seemed superfluous or inconsequential.

BEST SOUND EDITING
The Bourne Ultimatum
No Country for Old Men
Ratatouille
There Will Be Blood
Transformers

Who Will Win: No Country for Old Men
Who Deserves to Win: No Country for Old Men
Dark Horse Pick: The Bourne Ultimatum

BEST SOUND MIXING
The Bourne Ultimatum
No Country for Old Men
Ratatouille
3:10 to Yuma
Transformers

Who Will Win: The Bourne Ultimatum
Who Deserves to Win: No Country for Old Men
Dark Horse Pick: Transformers

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Golden Compass
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
Transformers

Who Will Win: Transformers
Who Deserves to Win: Transformers
Dark Horse Pick: The Golden Compass
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[Shrew]

Best Picture: No Country for Old Men
The Coen's have been around for a long time and Fargo was snubbed. No Country is also a damn good movie that's had a strong box office take for its ilk. The only chink in the armor is its dark nihilistic nature. There Will Be Blood also has a good chance, but while a tad less bloody, it's not any less dark. Juno has the next best shot, but Javier Bardem will blow out its warm, gooey indie brains before it gets to the stage.

Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis
Everyone else on here is just a nod.

Best Actress: Julie Christie
She's swept the critic's awards and she's playing a character with Alzheimer's. You can't beat Alzheimer's--it's incurable. Not to mention it's a strong understated performance, never over the top. Marion Cotillard may be playing a historical character, but she's also acting in French. I give Ellen Page better odds than her. And even if she has no chance at winning, I'm really glad Laura Linney got nominated.

Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem
A tough category, but Bardem is great and he's the only acting nominee in what should take home Best Picture. That should clinch his gold. Good to see Casey Affleck in there too though.

Actress: Amy Ryan
I think this is a toss-up between Blanchett and Ryan. Blanchett is a consistently great actress, and she's playing a real person, and a male one to boot! It's also a great performance, but I think Ryan may just have the edge. As a drugged-out mother she balances conveying something disgusting yet sympathetic, plus masters the Boston accent, ditches the glamourous, and makes the line "It's like 9/11!" seem like it could actually come out of someone's mouth.

Best Director: Coen Brothers
Same reasoning as the win for Best Picture. Anderson is the next in line, but he's relatively young and the difficult nature of his films means that like his mentor Robert Altman he'll get an Oscar when he's 80. Reitman and Gilroy have no chance, but the very existence of Reitman's nom gives Juno's chances in other categories a boost.

Original Screenplay: Diablo Cody, Juno
This is near given. Gilroy's script for Michael Clayton has the next best shot, only because it might be the film's consolation for not winning in anything else.

Adapted Screenplay: No Country for Old Men?
Sort of a toss-up. There Will be Blood has a good chance, and the others aren't out completely.

Animated Feature: Ratatouille
Persepolis has an outside chance, but since it was ignored in the Foreign Films list I don't think it will win here. Plus, Ratatouille is a beast of an awesome film.

Foreign Film: Katyn (Poland)
Wajda's an old but proven director, so I think it'll be his. And its got Russians killing lots of people. But I hear The Counterfeiters (from Austria) is about the Holocaust, and no one can stop the Holocaust. And though I didn't see either, I've still got to scratch my head at 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days and Persepolis missing from not only the nominees but the 9 film short list. I hear the Academy is discussing changing the system for selecting the Foreign Film nominees.

Art Direction: There Will Be Blood
Eh, Sweeney Todd will probably win it, since the whole thing is art direction, but There Will Be Blood has a lot going for it, and this could be a consolation for getting beat to death by No Country for Old Men elsewhere.

Cinematography: No Country for Old Men?
All of these are great and any deserve it so it's difficult to say. I think No Country for Old Men will win it by momentum, but There Will Be Blood also has a great shot.

Documentary: No End in Sight?
I suck. I haven't seen many documentaries, but I think Michael Moore's time is past. And I don't think the Academy wants to think about Taxi to the Dark Side. But Iraq is to big to ignore now.

Editing: No Country for Old Men
Again. Momentum.

Costume Design: Atonement
It's between this and Elizabeth: The Golden Age. Honestly The Golden Age has an advantage being a period piece and all, but I liked Atonement's simple but elegant costumes too much. And I think it has a good chance.

Original Score: Atonement
Typewriters.

Original Song: Once- "Falling Slowly"
Hands down, even before the nominees were announced. Enchanted's splitting its own vote cemented it.

Make-up: Pirate's of the Caribbean?
Johnny Depp's Mascara. Don't know about La Vie En Rose, but it ages its star no? And its prestigeyness might win. Honestly, Norbit may have most earned this award, but I can't believe Academy members could bring themselves to vote for it without vomiting.

Sound Mixing: No Country for Old Men?
A guess based mostly on momentum.

Sound Editing: Transformers?
I don't really know. But big explosions, crazy critter chat, jets and transforming noises? Those should give Transformers an edge.

Visual Effects: Transformers
Pirates looks rushed. I'm surprised Spider-man 3 isn't on here instead of it. I haven't seen the Golden Compass so it could sneak in. Still, this is the really the only area Transformers has a right to flaunt around in.

I may fill in the shorts later, if I actually see them. Or just randomly based on what has the best name.
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Fear our Vagueness.

[Tullaryx]

This year actually had some very good to great films snubbed not to mention some performances that should've been nominated but instead sentimental favorites given the honor. I mean Atonement took a Best Picture nomination and yet when compared to David Fincher's Zodiac it can't even hold a candle to Fincher's film. My feelings on that major snub have been that if Zodiac had been released around late-October through November then it would have easily made the Best Picture nomination list.

I mean this is a film released in early 2007 and was on many critics' top film lists and yet it fails to even garner any sort of nominations. It's unfortunate that films released early in the year rarely get the recognition it deserves and David Fincher's film about the hunt for the Zodiac killer was one of the biggest Oscar snubs of 2007.
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[Shrew]

I wasn't surprised by Zodiac's snub considering how early it came out. Plus, while it is great it is not the stuff that gets the Academy's bloodlust going. It's long, contains lots of strong but no standout towering performances, it's deliberately slow-paced, shot on digital, etc.

So it's unfortunate that Zodiac didn't get in, but it was a big underdog. And although I think Zodiac is the better film, I don't share your dislike of Atonement. The nominees in general are pretty solid; if any, Juno is the irky one for me. Still, I can live with it.

But if Atonement wins Best Picture, then my wrath may grow.
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Fear our Vagueness.

[Tullaryx]

No Country for Old Men just received another win which strengthens its chances to winning the major awards during Oscar night. The Directors Guild of America just gave Joel and Ethan Coen the top prize for their directing work on No Country for Old Men. This award plus the top prizes for several major critics circles really makes the Coen Brothers film the major frontrunner for the 80th Academy Awards.
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