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Is Poker a game of Skill or Chance?
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Adrian Magicent

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 15, 2007 5:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Skill is dominant, really. You can look at individual hand conduct and quality of play bringing results, the people who consistently win, etc. However, luck can trump skill at any time! And, if luck wasn't involved Phil Helmuth would win every time, right?
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 15, 2007 3:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Adrian Magicent wrote:
However, luck can trump skill at any time! And, if luck wasn't involved Phil Helmuth would win every time, right?


Or so he claims.
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 15, 2007 6:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

I've played texas holdem poker a couple of times (no real money was involved) and i won the first couple of games by bluffing. I actually thought it was skill, then when i lost the next few games i came to the conclusion that i may have been lucky. In my opinion i think poker is more luck than skill.
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Sniper_Zegai

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 15, 2007 6:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Its well known that the technique referred to as "Counting Cards" is a ligitamate technique and allowed in the rules of poker however you can be kicked out a casino for doing so.

I think its 100% skill for those who wish to do so. Groups of professional gamblers make millions from employing this technique. And some people make good livings off casinos from playing poker.

For the rest of us, I guess its just luck.
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Amyral

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 15, 2007 10:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Sniper_Zegai wrote:
Its well known that the technique referred to as "Counting Cards" is a ligitamate technique and allowed in the rules of poker however you can be kicked out a casino for doing so.


Err, that's blackjack. The deck is shuffled in between poker hands. Card counting is a method to determine how many face cards are left in a deck or set of decks, which isn't all that useful in poker. In addition, most of those playing any particular hand in poker throw in their cards without revealing them.
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Adrian Magicent

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 15, 2007 7:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Though, it can be quite useful to show them at times. But, again, that's up to the player and style and takes skill to decide.
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LordKratos

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 15, 2007 9:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

It's all chance you never know what card your going to get, if there was any skill in the game it would be being able to cheat without getting caught.
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Amyral

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 15, 2007 9:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

LordKratos wrote:
It's all chance you never know what card your going to get, if there was any skill in the game it would be being able to cheat without getting caught.


If it were all chance, then there wouldn't be a certain group of players who consistently out perform everyone else. But there are, so it pretty much disproves that the only skill involved is being able to cheat. That's not to say there is no chance, but there is a whole lot of skill involved in how people play. It's not as explicit, but those who actually know the game (far better than I do), would be able to explain the tactics behind it.

But it's not all chance. Roulette is all chance. There's absolutely nothing you can do to influence the wheel. But there is quite a bit people can do to influence the hand in the way they play their cards and the way they read their opponents. There's a whole lot more to the game than simple luck.
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Kalidor

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 15, 2007 10:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Poker, and I assume we are talking primarily about Texas Hold 'Em, is certainly not a game that relies mostly on luck, that is if we are talking about the professional level. Texas Hold 'Em is a game of probabilities and to truly excel at the professional level you must be adept at calculating probability quickly, especially if you are playing speed poker, where you have only a limited time frame to decide whether to hit or call or fold. To see just how much probability and mathematical calculation is involved, I'll direct you to this site, which does a very efficient job of breaking it down, though not into something that is easy to read unless you are adept at math.

Texas Hold 'Em Probability

Now believe it or not, the professionals know a lot about these probabilities, or can calculate them very quickly. That isn't to say they know the exact probability. However, if you've ever watched poker, you know how the percentage chance of cards winning the hand is shown? Professional poker players could likely get those numbers, or around them, of how good of a chance they have of winning. Of course they don't know what their opponent is holding; however, you can usually get a rough approximation if you are skilled.

That is where one aspect of the skill of poker comes in. For every hand that is dealt, a truly skilled player will have a very good idea of what his chances of winning are if he plays the hand. He knows what cards to play and which to lay down and having played a good deal of poker myself this is the most important thing that you can know.

Also, you can calculate the 'outs' that you have if you are a skilled player. Outs are the cards that can help your hand. This might seem like a trivial thing and anyone can do it if they have enough time. However, professional players can also determine if the number of outs they have justifies them meeting a raise if they are in a losing position.

Then there is also pot odds. This doesn't seem like a huge thing either, but it is important for the professional player. Here is a description of what pot odds are:

Wikipedia wrote:
Simple pot odds, or expressed pot odds, apply when considering a call when no further betting will be made (e.g., calling a bet on the final round). Simple pot odds are the ratio of the size of the potential bet to the size of the pot (bet-to-pot ratio). For example, if a player must call a $10 bet for a chance to win a $40 pot (not including the player's $10 call), the player's simple pot odds are 1-to-4 (20% probability). Continuing the example, assume the player's odds of winning are also 20%. If the pot is played five times, the player puts in $10 five times, loses four times and wins $50 once (breaking even). This means that a player should call a bet in this situation if he estimates his chance of winning to be greater than 20%.

Expressed mathematically, a player should call a bet if his probability of winning is greater than bet / (potsize + bet). This does not include action in subsequent betting rounds, discussed in implied odds below.

Simple pot odds apply on any betting round when making a pure bluff if the bluff will be given up if called or raised.


Now, I'm quite sure that your average, unskilled player doesn't calculate pot odds for every potential call that he makes. That description is only for simple pot odds as well and leaves out the consideration of implied pot odds, and reverse implied pot odds. For a full description of pot odds, look here:

Pot Odds

And finally there is the aspect that has mostly been discussed so far, reading other players. This is definitly a skill too though one that I can't quantify so easily since it doesn't follow any particular formula. It's something that can only be developed with practice and is invaluable at the table.

With all of these factors combined I don't see how people think that poker is more luck than skill. At the amateur level, yes, poker is more about luck. But at the poker table it's all about making the right choices with the cards you have and calculating all the factors at your disposal. These factors can be determined by luck, but beyond that the skilled player will come out ahead if a large enough sampling is taken.
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RedCydranth

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 16, 2007 12:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Kalidor basically answered it. There's definitely more skill than luck, even in house games. All it takes is one person being able to calculate the odds and all that for the game to shift his way. How you play the game is a big part of how much luck you need.

Something I'd also like to add in addition to Kalidor's highly informative post. Knowing how to play the button can be huge. If you have the big blind you are more apt to keep your dealt cards and see how the flop treats you, or see how the first round of bets swings. Even with a relatively harmless pocket (maybe a 6-9 offsuit or a low suited pocket) you might get something lucky on the flop that will vault you into a big lead. If the flop comes and you have no outs or very improbable outs, then its a good chance you should fold.

Another thing I'd like to point out though. When we watch ESPN or Travel Channel or whatever Poker we all watch (I'm partial to ESPN, I like Norman Chad and Lon McEachern) we only see the action hands usually. Often times these tournaments last longer than 8 hours and we only see the best hands cut by editors. Unless its a final table or something, and even then I've seen editing done.

But its not to say there's no luck. Let Phil Helmuth or Mike Matusow tell you that. I've seen those two eliminated on some really bad beats. They can have a 95% chance to win and their rookie/amateur opponent will pull that Queen he needs on the river. Then the fireworks fly. They know that they had it won, but thats the instance where Luck has to come into play. That is why Poker is so fun to watch and play, because even if you are one of the most skilled players, you can still get broken by a bout of bad luck.

Another thing is the venue of poker you play. Any time you have real people sitting in front of you, there a strategic element involved. But when you play online, that is eliminated, or at the very least, dramatically lowered. Because you can't see the sweat on their face or the nervous ticks, you can't read them. Online poker has more luck than face to face poker. Sure the Pot Odds and such are still in effect, but you can't play the opponent's hand like you can in real poker. Its just not the same atmosphere. Its even less so when you aren't even playing for money, like in a Yahoo game room or PokerStars.net room with fake cash. Any time there's no legitimate money at stake people play like fools. You have no damn clue because idiots will go all in with a 2-9 offsuit just because they literally have nothing to lose and flop a 2 pair. If it were for money, anyone with half a braincell would fold a 2-9 offsuit as there's nothing aside from a lucky 9 flop that will get you anything decent. And most of the time there's a better hand than a pair of 9s by the river. But because there's no cash at stake your pocket tens now are beaten by some punk's lucky 2 pair flop. Sure you don't lose anything either, but if you try to play with skill and calculations in a no cash game of poker, you're going to get very frustrated, very fast.

When I play poker, I never play for money because I made a vow to never gamble, but I play with people who I know are serious players who don't go all in on a ridiculous hand unless they're down to like 5 chips. I always play as if there's real money at stake. That way I can try to hone my skill.

LordKratos, Its apparent that either you don't play much poker, or you lose a lot. Folding can be beneficial.

Amyral, Roulette is all chance, but there is a method of how to play it, there is a certain skill involved in how you bet the table. While technically the odds are the same for every spin, there's better odds that the same spins won't happen successively and certain numbers groups or colors won't hit a certain number of times in a row. Roulette is the reason I've vowed not to gamble. That and the Slot machines, heh. I get VERY addicted. Even though I've never come out in the hole in Roulette, I refuse to play it now.
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Amyral

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 16, 2007 12:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Moon Knight wrote:
While technically the odds are the same for every spin, there's better odds that the same spins won't happen successively and certain numbers groups or colors won't hit a certain number of times in a row.


See, that's the thing, there's not. There are no better odds that it's going to land on any one spot than any other, and it doesn't change on successive rolls. What's important to casinos is that people think there are, which is why casinos love the game. There are casinos that put up boards with how the last 10 or so spins landed, because they know people will always try to look for patterns, or they will try to bet on red when it's been black 5 times in a row, but there's no greater chance that it's going to be any one result than any other. They've said that's the reason why they do it. They know people will try to see the patterns in it, when there aren't any. Because of that, they can clean up on the game.

Of course, I agree with everything else. As I said before, those who know the game better than I do will be far better at explaining the strategy behind it, and you and Kalidor did a great job.
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Kalidor

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 16, 2007 1:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

In fact, on the subject of roulette, I once saw an absolutely fascinating documentary about roulette and playing it.

Amyral is actually correct. Stastically and by looking at probability there is no way to accurately bet on a roulette table. By the laws of probability there is the same probability for the roulette wheel to land on the same number every time. It doesn't matter if the wheel landed on 22 five times in a row, there is just as good a chance on the next spin that the ball will come to rest on 22 again as there is that it will stop on any other number.

A perfectly balanced and perfectly operating roulette table cannot be predicted or conned. However, roulette tables are mechanical and as such are subject to mechanical failure. Imagine a roulette table that is used in a highly trafficed casino. It is spun hundred, probably thousands, of times every single day, day in and day out. Now, a roulette table can be considered a "safe" game for the house since it is almost impossible to cheat at it. So, unless something definitly breaks down with the table it doesn't likely need to be repaired.

As such, spin after spin, the mechanics of the table can break down. The bearings can wear slightly in one particular spot and this will effect the play of the wheel, giving it a bias towards a certain number. This will be very hard to detect and very difficult to predict. However, this documentary was about a man who did just that. He got his family together and went to a casino and watched every roulette table for weeks. He recorded every spin on every table, gathering hundreds of thousands of samples for each table. He then put these samples into a computer program that broke down where the ball landed statistically. It turned out that every wheel did have a bias that made itself apparent after hundreds of thousands of trials.

After that was figured out, all that was left was to play the tables. He needed a big bankroll to do so, because even though the tables had a bias he was still going to lose a majority of the time. And then, on each table that he had figured out the bias on, all he played was that number, over and over, all night. The most imperative thing was that he continuously played the biased number no matter what kind of a streak he was on. However, because roulette pays out 35 to 1 on a single number bet, when he did win the winnings were large. By keeping this up he began to consistently make money, over and over, coming out ahead.

All in all Gonzalo Garcia-Pelayo, the man who employed this technique, won over 2 million euros in several years time. Not a bad payout I'd say. His winnings were challenged by casinos in court, however, the court ruled in his favour, since he had not technically done anything illegal. All in all it was a very fascinating documentary and I applaud the man's ingenuity.
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 16, 2007 1:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

I think it is a mix of both. Even the most skilled player can't win if he is not lucky, and even a first time player can win a game with skilled players if he is lucky.

I can't say it is 70% skill 30% luck or stuff like that. But I do think skill is more important than luck.
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Amyral

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 16, 2007 1:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Kalidor: That is rather intriguing. Even after all the work he had done, it was still a hit or miss, but because he had to win only once every 35 times, the slight bias still net him millions. That is rather impressive, as well as time consuming..

Of course, I doubt it would work now, now that casinos have seen that that can be done. Particularly with the big casinos who tend to cycle out their physical parts often. They tend to switch out pieces often, if not daily. In addition, actions like that, the long periods of watching followed by uncharacteristic success, would likely lead to the larger casinos kicking him and his family out, as they can do with no reason. I don't know how they work in Europe, but here, once he began winning more than the average person should, he would be kicked out of most major casinos.
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 27, 2007 5:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

I'd say its 50/50. Skill can only get you so far, if you don't have the cards, you don't have the cards. And Luck is equally worthless if you have no skill.
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